With Israel on the verge of ordering a land offensive in Gaza in retaliation to the medieval massacre by Sunni Hamas jihadists in South Israel since October 7, the Middle East is now sitting on a powder keg as the democratic world watching the scenario unfold with bated breath for the strike-retaliation-counter-retaliation terror cycle could play out globally.
While the unfolding crisis is being monitored constantly in India, there are many scenarios that can threaten global instability. Consider this:
· There is a divided opinion among the national security planners on whether the Israel-Hamas conflagration could engulf the Middle East and the world at large or stay contained in the current battle theatre. The answer to this question lies in the intentions of the Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorist group towards the Israeli retaliation. As of now Hezbollah has only fired warning shots in north Israel and confined itself to verbally standing with Hamas. If Hezbollah opens up on north Israel then it is only a matter of time before its main backer, Shia Iran, gets into the conflict and leads to both horizontal and vertical escalation of the war. Iran is a declared enemy of Jews and Israel and blames Mossad and the CIA for the assassination of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad on January 3, 2020. Iran also is seeking to avenge the killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, its chief nuclear scientist, on November 27, 2020, by alleged Mossad agents in Absard, Iran. A highly radicalized ruling elite of Iran also believes that the US is behind the current unrest of women in their country with imprisoned activist Narges Mohammadi being awarded the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize. With propaganda active on social media, images of Israeli retaliation in Gaza now will be used by jihadists to push other states into conflict as both Hamas and Hezbollah have umbilical links with the pan-Islamic Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood runs a prominent news channel from Qatar with highly paid Caucasian anchors and has a dominating presence in Qatar as well as Kuwait. The war will only spread to other parts of the Middle East if Hezbollah and Syria open a front and for that, the US will have to deliver on peace in no uncertain terms as China has no skin in the complex game and Russia is bogged down in Ukraine.
· While an all-out war also depends on larger geopolitical play and on how maturely states like Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt, who are totally against the Brotherhood, handle their public opinion within their own country. As of now UAE and Bahrain have at least called out the grave escalation on the part of Hamas but other countries like Qatar and Turkey, who want to project themselves as shoulders of Sunni Islam, are baying for Israel’s blood. While it is said that Hamas leader Mohammed Deif planned the south Israel attack in 2021 after seeing images of Israeli forces storming Al Aqsa mosque during Ramzan, the images of Israeli relations in Gaza could spawn lone-wolf attacks against Israelis and its supporters globally. These attacks could take place at a major place of the congregation or in any of the three dimensions. In this context, the sermons given from mosques in the Middle East and elsewhere tomorrow could be very important as there is a possibility of violence or lone wolf attacks or protests after Friday prayers.
{{/usCountry}}· While an all-out war also depends on larger geopolitical play and on how maturely states like Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt, who are totally against the Brotherhood, handle their public opinion within their own country. As of now UAE and Bahrain have at least called out the grave escalation on the part of Hamas but other countries like Qatar and Turkey, who want to project themselves as shoulders of Sunni Islam, are baying for Israel’s blood. While it is said that Hamas leader Mohammed Deif planned the south Israel attack in 2021 after seeing images of Israeli forces storming Al Aqsa mosque during Ramzan, the images of Israeli relations in Gaza could spawn lone-wolf attacks against Israelis and its supporters globally. These attacks could take place at a major place of the congregation or in any of the three dimensions. In this context, the sermons given from mosques in the Middle East and elsewhere tomorrow could be very important as there is a possibility of violence or lone wolf attacks or protests after Friday prayers.
{{/usCountry}}Given that a new cycle of terrorism has only just begun, the democratic world will have to be on its toes as countries like Pakistan, Turkey, Iran and Afghanistan could use the Israeli retaliation to weaponize their own resident jihadists on political Islam to suit their own geo-political interests for the coming years. India should be on alert to this possible development.