US election forecast: Simulation model gives edge to Kamala Harris over Donald Trump

A US website reported that Kamala Harris emerged victorious in 50.015% of cases out of 80000 simulations it carried out.

Published on: Nov 5, 2024, 13:24:36 IST

By HT News Desk

Prefer HTon Google

Share via

Copy link

According to a simulation model, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is ahead of her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, in the US presidential election.

Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris laughs during a campaign rally in Philadelphia. (Reuters)

A US-based website reports that Kamala Harris emerged victorious in 50.015% of cases out of 80000 simulations it carried out. She didn't win in 39,988 simulations.

Trump won 39,718 times in the simulations.

"Happy Election Day! At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases. She did not win in 39,988 simulations (49.985%). Of those, 39,718 were outright wins for Donald Trump and the remainder (270 simulations) were exact 269-269 Electoral College ties: these ties are likely to eventually result in Trump wins in the U.S. House of Representatives," reported Silver Bulletin.

Also read: What S Jaishankar said on Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris fight

According to the website, Kamala Harris is leading Trump by a slim margin. She is projected to receive 48.6 per cent votes, Trump is projected to score 47.6 percent votes.

Harris is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Minnesota. Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Florida and Iowa.

Harris was nominated as the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden quit the presidential race amid mounting concerns over his age.

If elected president, the 59-year-old Harris would become the first woman in history to become the US President.

Donald Trump is looking for his second term. This is the third consecutive time that he is the Republican presidential candidate.

Meanwhile, India's external affairs minister S Jaishankar said the country's ties with the United States will grow irrespective of the US election results.

Also read: Decoding Kamala Harris's India equation: What will her win in US election mean for New Delhi

“We have seen steady progress in our relationship with the US over the last 5 presidencies, including an earlier Trump presidency. So, when we look at the American election, we are very confident that whatever the verdict, our relationship with the US will only grow,” he said.

With inputs from agencies

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
HT News Desk
Follow the latest breaking news, major developments and agenda-setting stories from India and around the world with the newsdesk at Hindustan Times. Operating round the clock, the desk brings together experienced editors, reporters and correspondents to deliver fast, accurate and contextual reporting across subjects that influence public policy, governance, business, society and international affairs. The HT News Desk covers politics, elections, government policies, the economy, business and markets, science and technology, the environment, law and order, infrastructure, education, climate issues and geopolitics, while closely tracking developments across states, institutions and global capitals. The team also leads coverage of major breaking news events, policy announcements, court proceedings, natural disasters, public emergencies and significant international developments. Reports published by the newsdesk are based on information gathered from reporters on the ground, official statements, government agencies, court records, regulatory filings, recognised institutions and other authoritative sources. Stories undergo editorial scrutiny and verification processes to ensure accuracy, fairness and relevance, and are updated as events evolve and additional information becomes available. Whether covering a key political decision in New Delhi, an economic policy shift affecting millions, a landmark court ruling or a major global event, the HT News Desk aims to provide readers with reliable, fact-based journalism that delivers not only the latest developments but also the context and analysis needed to understand their wider implications.Read More

Get the latest headlines from US news and global updates from Pakistan, Nepal, UK, Bangladesh, Russia and US Iran war Live, get all the latest headlines in one place on Hindustan Times.