The 2026 midterms Kansas Senate race has emerged as an unexpectedly competitive contest, with Democrat Adam Hamilton narrowly leading Republican incumbent Roger Marshall as per latest polls.
The Emerson College Polling-Nexstar Media survey, conducted September 15-16 among 750 likely voters, found Hamilton at 45% and Marshall at 43%, with Libertarian candidate David Graham at 4% and 8% undecided.
The poll marks a notable shift in a state where Republicans have dominated statewide federal elections. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1932.
Adam Hamilton v Roger Marshall: What latest polls show
The Emerson result is not the only recent measure of the race. A co-efficient poll conducted September 8-10 showed Marshall ahead of Hamilton, 49% to 44%. An August Public Policy Polling survey had Marshall at 46% and Hamilton at 45%.
As a result, polling averages remain close. RealClearPolling's current average of recent surveys has Marshall at 46% and Hamilton at 44.5%, a 1.5-point Republican advantage.
The Emerson poll also found that independent voters backed Hamilton 42% to 27%, while the economy was the top issue for Kansas voters at 48%, followed by healthcare at 14%.
Why Kansas Senate race rating changed
The tightening contest has prompted several major political handicappers to change their assessments.
Cook Political Report moved Kansas from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, citing attacks over Marshall's medical billing and collection practices, economic pressures facing agriculture and the increasingly competitive campaign being run by Hamilton.
Sabato's Crystal Ball also moved the race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. The publication cited the Emerson poll and recent scrutiny surrounding Marshall, while noting that it would still be surprising for Kansas to elect a Democratic senator this year.
Fox News Power Rankings likewise shifted Kansas from Likely Republican to Lean Republican and added the state to its list of battleground states.
The changes do not mean the race has been reclassified as a Democratic seat. Instead, they reflect the fact that the contest is being watched more closely as November approaches.
Can Adam Hamilton beat Roger Marshall?
The available polling shows a race within a few percentage points rather than a consistent lead for either candidate. Hamilton's two-point advantage in the latest Emerson survey contrasts with Marshall's five-point lead in the co-efficient poll conducted just days earlier.
For Hamilton, the challenge is converting his current support into a broader coalition in a state that has historically favored Republicans. For Marshall, the polling underscores the need to hold Republican support while competing for independents and voters focused on economic issues.
With 8% undecided in the latest Emerson survey and recent polls moving in different directions, the Kansas Senate contest remains closely watched as the 2026 midterm campaign enters its final stretch.