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Social Security’s 2026 COLA forecast rises — what it means for retirees
Retirees may see a 2.7%–2.8% COLA boost in 2026, but rising Medicare premiums will eat up much of the increase, leaving smaller net gain.
Social Security beneficiaries are expected to see a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) of about 2.7% to 2.8% in 2026, according to the latest projections, according to CNBC report. That would be slightly higher than the 2.5% increase in 2025. The Social Security Administration will release the official number in mid-October 2025, once September inflation data is finalized.
For the average retiree collecting about $2,008 per month, the projected adjustment equals about $54 more each month. If the final number is 2.8%, the monthly increase would be a dollar or two higher.
COLA is based on (CPI-W)
The COLA is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which tracks inflation during July, August, and September. Higher costs for gas, medical services, and housing during this period pushed the estimate above last year’s increase.
Still, many seniors are unlikely to feel much relief. Medicare Part B premiums are expected to climb from $185 in 2025 to about $206.50 in 2026. Because premiums are deducted directly from Social Security checks, nearly 40% of the COLA could be offset, leaving retirees with closer to $32 to $33 extra per month. Prescription drug plan costs are also forecast to rise.
Advocacy groups such as the Senior Citizens League note that even with a higher adjustment than last year, the increase does not fully cover rising expenses for healthcare, housing, and food. The projected 2026 COLA remains far below the 8.7% jump in 2023, the largest in more than four decades.
Also Read: September Social Security payments to follow normal schedule, but some may see cuts. What to know
In addition to the COLA, other Social Security changes will take effect in 2026:
The full retirement age will reach 67 for people born in 1960 or later.
The taxable wage base—the maximum amount of earnings subject to Social Security payroll tax—will rise.
Earnings limits for people claiming benefits before full retirement age will also be adjusted upward.
Financial planners warn retirees to factor in Medicare premiums and other medical costs when budgeting for 2026. While the COLA provides some protection against inflation, healthcare costs continue to rise faster than overall prices, limiting the real impact of the increase.
COLA history
2023: 8.7%
2024: 3.2%
2025: 2.5%
2026 (projected): 2.7–2.8%
The final 2026 adjustment will be confirmed on October 15, 2025.
