Washington: Democrats will control both chambers of the US Congress from January after decisive wins in the November 3 midterm elections, giving them sweeping powers to check President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda, though the 80-year-old President retains wide latitude over American diplomacy. The return of divided government to Washington has implications for several issues that matter to India.
India wants a swift end to the Iran war, which has strained its energy imports, fuelled inflation and destabilised a region that is home to nearly 10 million Indians.
The incoming Democratic majorities have made ending the war a top priority. Both chambers narrowly passed a resolution in June directing Trump to halt military action against Iran, but the administration brushed it aside. The party’s real leverage lies in spending, though the Pentagon’s existing funds mean operations need not stop at once even if Congress refuses new money.
Deep Dive
Could US midterm results change tariffs on Indian goods or delay the India-US trade deal?
Can Congress challenge the $100,000 H-1B visa fee affecting Indian workers?
How could a Democratic-controlled Congress affect the Iran war and India's energy interests?
“Democrats can include language in spending bills that prevent the administration from using military funds for unauthorized military conflict, and we would certainly expect Democrats to do that,” said Eddie Bejarano, Americas analyst at Dragonfly, a Dow Jones intelligence service. Trump can veto any such bill.
HT has reported that US forces in West Asia were ready to launch “a big effort” in Iran after the midterms, which would put fresh operations under way before Democrats can act. New Delhi will watch whether the defeats, which both Trump and Vice-President JD Vance have linked to the war, change the White House’s plans.
{{/usCountry}}HT has reported that US forces in West Asia were ready to launch “a big effort” in Iran after the midterms, which would put fresh operations under way before Democrats can act. New Delhi will watch whether the defeats, which both Trump and Vice-President JD Vance have linked to the war, change the White House’s plans.
{{/usCountry}}Trade: Tariffs stay with the White House
Analysts expect little change on tariffs. Since the Supreme Court struck down his emergency-powers tariffs in February, Trump has shifted to other trade laws, including Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Congress also gave him the power to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the biggest buyers of Russian energy, such as India, under the Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act. He waived almost all of its measures on October 16, but the White House says it “retains the ability to exercise these authorities at any time”.
“The tariff actions undertaken by Trump so far don’t require action by the Congress, and the agreements that Trump’s been negotiating, including the agreement with India, are what the administration would describe as executive agreements,” said Mark Linscott, senior adviser at the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum. Such deals do not need the trade promotion authority legislation that free trade agreements require, he said, an approach used by plenty of past administrations.
He was less sure about the trade deal, which Indian and American officials say is close to completion. He said some in Delhi expected Trump’s defeat to delay the interim agreement, which he said would be unfortunate as the agreement “is in the interest of both countries”. “If there is a perception in the Trump administration that India is dragging its feet again, or is not interested in concluding the interim agreement, then we could see higher tariffs than we would otherwise see under Section 301,” he said, adding that it could also raise the risk of tariffs under the Graham law.
Immigration: Congress can weigh in on large new visa fees
Indians accounted for an estimated 71% of approved H-1B visas, which let US employers hire skilled foreign workers, in recent years, according to US government figures reported by PTI. India also sent 363,019 students to the US in 2024-25, more than any other country, according to the Institute of International Education, a US non-profit.
Most of the Trump administration’s curbs on these workers and students came through proclamations and agency rules that need no approval from Congress. Large new charges may be the exception. A federal judge in Boston ruled in June that the $100,000 H-1B fee Trump announced in September 2025 was a tax Congress never authorised, a ruling the administration is appealing. The same test would apply to a $100,000 fee the administration is considering for students using the Optional Practical Training (OPT) programme to work in the US after their studies.
Bejarano said H-1B visas could be “a potential area that they prioritize, given that there’s a lot of corporate backing in the United States for these programs”. But he cautioned that “most people will be surprised that over the coming years that perhaps Democrats aren’t as intense about perhaps undoing some of the president’s immigration policies”. “I don’t necessarily see it being the case that Democrats will come in in January 2027 and try to completely rewrite the immigration book,” he said, though “these kind of specific visa categories can be places where Democrats can affect and reverse policies that have been instituted”.
Russia: Where Republicans may break with Trump
Trump’s October 16 order waived the Graham Act’s sanctions on Russia as well as its tariffs, drawing criticism from lawmakers of both parties, Reuters reported. The Act passed by veto-proof margins, 86-11 in the Senate and 262-159 in the House, and Russia is the issue on which a bipartisan majority against Trump is most likely to form. For India, a Congress pressing harder on Russia would mean closer scrutiny of its Russian oil purchases.
Artificial Intelligence
New Delhi will also watch whether a more hawkish Congress revives curbs on AI chip exports, which the Biden administration had applied to India before the Trump administration reversed them. A broader slowdown in American development of AI technology will be of interest to India and the world, given well founded concerns about safety and a recent spate of worrying cyber security incidents caused by AI agents.