The biggest story of the assembly election results announced on December 11 is a Congress revival at the cost of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The Congress has increased its combined 2018 tally in the three Hindi belt states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan from 118 in 2013 to 287. The BJP’s seats have gone down from 377 to 197. It will however be hasty to draw grand conclusions from the drastic changes in seat shares.
The BJP and the Congress are neck and neck in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in terms of vote share. The Congress’ vote share is 50 basis points more than that of the BJP in Rajasthan. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP has a 10 basis point lead over the Congress on this count. One basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. Simply speaking, this means that nearly equal number of people voted for both the parties in the two big Hindi belt states.
The mismatch between vote share and seat share movements has once again brought to fore the uncertainties associated with the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system. An academic analysis of the results could end amicably with this argument. Politics in the run up to 2019 is bound to get more complicated with such uncertainties though. Both the Congress and BJP will aggressively defend their existing voter base and try and usurp a part of their adversary’s supporters. This battle will take place simultaneously in both social and economic realms.
Let us look at the economic factors first. The 2017 Gujarat elections showed that the BJP was more vulnerable to the Congress in rural areas, but could hold its ground in urban ones. These elections show that the Congress has emerged a serious challenger to the BJP even in urban areas. An analysis by Ashoka University’s Neelanjan Sircar published in this newspaper shows that the BJP suffered a bigger dip in its strike rate in urban seats than rural seats in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Even in Rajasthan, the BJP’s strike rate in urban areas has gone down by 32 percentage points. Rural distress is not the only factor generating headwinds for the BJP today.
{{/usCountry}}Let us look at the economic factors first. The 2017 Gujarat elections showed that the BJP was more vulnerable to the Congress in rural areas, but could hold its ground in urban ones. These elections show that the Congress has emerged a serious challenger to the BJP even in urban areas. An analysis by Ashoka University’s Neelanjan Sircar published in this newspaper shows that the BJP suffered a bigger dip in its strike rate in urban seats than rural seats in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Even in Rajasthan, the BJP’s strike rate in urban areas has gone down by 32 percentage points. Rural distress is not the only factor generating headwinds for the BJP today.
{{/usCountry}}This increases the significance of the employment debate under the present government. The absence of National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) numbers after 2011-12 has delayed a resolution to the jobs debate. While private sources such as Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy paint a grim picture, the government has been citing numbers such as Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) enrolment statistics to paint a rosy picture on the job front. Interestingly, the Reserve Bank of India’s consumer confidence survey, which is conducted in urban areas, has been showing a weakening perception around employment and income prospects in the recent period. Whether or not there is a public admission, there is bound to be a rethink in the government about the employment scenario in the country.
Growing urban discontent will also be more difficult to handle as traditional stimulus mechanisms such as higher Minimum Support Prices and debt-waivers cannot be exercised effectively in cities.
This is where social fault lines come into play. Trying to forge a rainbow Hindu coalition has been a time-tested strategy for the BJP. The received wisdom in Indian politics perceives the division between the BJP and the Congress as the manifestation of a communalism versus secularism binary. At best, this is a half truth. A 2016 survey among young Indians by CSDS-Lokniti showed that there was little difference among BJP and non-BJP supporters on ideological issues germane to a liberal-illiberal classification except on beef eating. The Congress’ efforts to reach out to the “conscious” Hindu voter through gestures such as temple visits etc. are a vindication of this fact. It will be interesting to see how the Congress reacts to the BJP’s polarisation tactics in the run up to 2019. To be sure, it will not be easy for the BJP to recreate a rainbow Hindu coalition. The party has been facing difficulties in maintaining a balance between its newly acquired social allies and old supporters. Dalits accuse it of being pro-upper caste. Upper castes think they are being taken for granted now. And the vagaries of FPTP mean that the opposition can gain disproportionately in terms of seats even if a small section of the BJP’s social base shifts camps.
So, while the BJP is still better placed than the opposition in terms of 2019, its challenges have increased on more than one front.
roshan.k@htlive.com