Roshan Kishore

Roshan Kishore is the Data and Political Economy Editor at Hindustan Times. His weekly column for HT Premium Terms of Trade appears every Friday.

Articles by Roshan Kishore

Terms of Trade| Opposition should not wait for (the) Godot of economic doom

The Opposition will do well to look at possible fault lines it can exploit to win back political support rather than hope for economic doomsday which will lead to a mass rebellion.
Haryana Congress leaders protesting fuel price rise, Ambala Cantonment, May 12, 2022. (HT Photo)
Haryana Congress leaders protesting fuel price rise, Ambala Cantonment, May 12, 2022. (HT Photo)
Updated on May 13, 2022 08:33 PM IST
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Retail inflation rises to 7.8%, highest in 8 years

"Global economy, still in the process of reversing supply-side disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, would have been far more comfortably placed in the absence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the economic sanctions it has led to,” the Department of Economic Affairs said.
Experts believe that this combination of tepid economic activity and high inflation poses serious challenges for the Indian economy going forward.(Sanjeev Verma/HT ARCHIVE)
Experts believe that this combination of tepid economic activity and high inflation poses serious challenges for the Indian economy going forward.(Sanjeev Verma/HT ARCHIVE)
Updated on May 13, 2022 03:10 AM IST
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Number theory: Four charts that explain India’s inflation scenario

While the latest inflation number is still significantly lower than the all-time high of 11.51% in the month of November 2013 under the current series which starts from January 2012, it has triggered concerns. Here are four charts which present a detailed picture of what is going on .
Rising consumer inflation has increased the cost of living for average Indians, who are paying higher prices for a range of commodities, from fuel, electronics and transport to basic food items. (REUTERS File Photo)
Rising consumer inflation has increased the cost of living for average Indians, who are paying higher prices for a range of commodities, from fuel, electronics and transport to basic food items. (REUTERS File Photo)
Updated on May 13, 2022 10:07 AM IST
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RBI, govt likely to tighten policies to curb inflation

One official, who is involved in maintaining a balance between inflation and growth, said t inflation is rising mainly because of external factors – the war in Ukraine, global supply chain disruptions, and zero-Covid policy in China.
FILE - A man watches a screen showing Russian President Vladimir Putin on the facade of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai. (AP)
FILE - A man watches a screen showing Russian President Vladimir Putin on the facade of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai. (AP)
Published on May 12, 2022 12:56 AM IST
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ByRajeev Jayaswal and Roshan Kishore

How will delimitation change electoral politics in Jammu & Kashmir?

The final order of the Delimitation Commission for the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir has created a political controversy in the erstwhile state
The three members of the Delimitation Commission have signed off on the final order for restructuring the assembly seats in the Union Territory(ANI)
The three members of the Delimitation Commission have signed off on the final order for restructuring the assembly seats in the Union Territory(ANI)
Updated on May 07, 2022 04:33 AM IST
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ByAbhishek Jha and Roshan Kishore

Terms of Trade | The freebie syndrome in India’s political economy framework

  • This column seeks to answer fundamental questions about this culture, including: Would it be a problem if the State had infinite resources at its disposal? And Is offering freebies to the ‘have-nots’ the only game in town? 
People wait in a queue to collect free ration from a government store in Prayagraj, If anything, the BJP has only expanded the realm of welfare benefits which now includes everything from toilets to tap water.(PTI)
People wait in a queue to collect free ration from a government store in Prayagraj, If anything, the BJP has only expanded the realm of welfare benefits which now includes everything from toilets to tap water.(PTI)
Updated on May 06, 2022 04:28 PM IST
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Number Theory: A challenging phase for India’s inflation targeting framework

India’s inflation targeting framework first came into effect for the period from August 2016 to March 2021. Under the new agreement between RBI and the government, the central bank was expected to maintain the benchmark inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 4% within a band of +/- 2%.
A simple look at retail and wholesale inflation measures suggests that the inflation scenario is the most challenging at the moment since the inflation targeting framework was adopted.(MINT_PRINT)
A simple look at retail and wholesale inflation measures suggests that the inflation scenario is the most challenging at the moment since the inflation targeting framework was adopted.(MINT_PRINT)
Updated on May 06, 2022 04:40 PM IST
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By, Hindustan Times, New Delhi

RBI raises policy rate at surprise MPC meet

Announcing MPC’s decision at an unscheduled press conference on May 4, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das justified the action on account of increased risks to inflation compared to the MPC’s April assessment.
To be sure, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das reiterated that monetary policy stance continues to be accommodative, which according to experts refers to the fact that real policy rate (after adjusting for inflation) continues to be negative.(ANI file photo)
To be sure, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das reiterated that monetary policy stance continues to be accommodative, which according to experts refers to the fact that real policy rate (after adjusting for inflation) continues to be negative.(ANI file photo)
Updated on May 05, 2022 04:56 AM IST
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ByRoshan Kishore and Rajeev Jayaswal, Hindustan Times, New Delhi

Number Theory: Five charts to make sense of the LIC IPO

The IPO, which was originally scheduled for the last fiscal year, will see the government only sell 3.5% of its stake compared to the mandated 5%.
State-owned insurance giant, LIC, opens its Initial Public Offering on May 4, Wednesday amid volatile domestic and global markets. (BLOOMBERG.)
State-owned insurance giant, LIC, opens its Initial Public Offering on May 4, Wednesday amid volatile domestic and global markets. (BLOOMBERG.)
Updated on May 04, 2022 11:35 AM IST
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49% of Indian workers are employed outdoors in scorching heat

Over the past few weeks, large parts of the country have seen severe heatwaves.
Labourers work at a construction site on a hot summer day in New Delhi, India, May 2, 2022. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi
Labourers work at a construction site on a hot summer day in New Delhi, India, May 2, 2022. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi
Updated on May 03, 2022 12:18 PM IST
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Terms of Trade | The Prashant Kishor saga: Can a consultant revive the Congress?

  • No consultant can help the party decide on what are three existential questions — its attitude towards Hindutva politics, the need for an internal assessment, and its core leadership. Its future depends more on how it deals with these questions rather than its engagement with a political strategist
Election strategist Prashant Kishor, who was part of the Congress meetings, refused to divulge any details. (PTI)(HT_PRINT)
Election strategist Prashant Kishor, who was part of the Congress meetings, refused to divulge any details. (PTI)(HT_PRINT)
Updated on Apr 29, 2022 02:34 PM IST
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Number theory: Why India is worried about Indonesia’s ban on palm oil exports

India is the biggest importer of edible oil in the world. This also means that the Indian economy and budgets of its households, are extremely sensitive to disturbances in the global edible oil market.
Indonesia’s decision to ban the exports of palm oil on April 22 has the potential of administering such a shock. Indonesia is the world’s biggest palm oil producer. (Representational image)(Reuters)
Indonesia’s decision to ban the exports of palm oil on April 22 has the potential of administering such a shock. Indonesia is the world’s biggest palm oil producer. (Representational image)(Reuters)
Updated on Apr 27, 2022 01:23 PM IST
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By, New Delhi

Terms of Trade | Multilateralism vs mercantilism: Our agri trade policy dilemma

  • No amount of trade reciprocation will placate the agri-business lobby in advanced countries to allow India to continue its agricultural support and mercantilism at the same time. Unless India builds an alliance with others in the Global South
Agriculture and food security are among the most important issues discussed in the Doha Round. (HT Photo)
Agriculture and food security are among the most important issues discussed in the Doha Round. (HT Photo)
Updated on Apr 22, 2022 06:42 PM IST
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Number Theory: India’s growth-inflation challenge in four charts

Earlier this week, the ministry of commerce and industry released the wholesale price index (WPI) for the month of March. At 14.5%, it was the second highest since 2012. Almost all institutional and private forecasts expect tailwinds to inflation and headwinds to growth in the global economy.
IMF’s latest WEO expects Indian economy to grow at 8.2% in 2022-23.(Shutterstock)
IMF’s latest WEO expects Indian economy to grow at 8.2% in 2022-23.(Shutterstock)
Updated on Apr 21, 2022 01:10 PM IST
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Freebie politics is eroding fiscal federalism: NK Singh

Chairman of the Fifteenth Finance Commission, NK Singh’s remarks come in the backdrop of senior bureaucrats expressing their apprehensions to Prime Minister Narendra Modi about the growing culture of promising various kinds of freebies during state elections earlier this month.
NK Singh, chairperson of Fifteenth Finance Commission and Yogesh Singh, vice chancellor of Delhi University during the annual day celebrations of Delhi School of Economics, at Swami Vivekanand Hall, in New Delhi, India, on Tuesday, April 19, 2022. (Photo by Raj K Raj/Hindustan Times)
NK Singh, chairperson of Fifteenth Finance Commission and Yogesh Singh, vice chancellor of Delhi University during the annual day celebrations of Delhi School of Economics, at Swami Vivekanand Hall, in New Delhi, India, on Tuesday, April 19, 2022. (Photo by Raj K Raj/Hindustan Times)
Updated on Apr 20, 2022 01:13 AM IST
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By, New Delhi

Wholesale inflation shoots up to 14.5% on pricier fuels

The latest WPI value, which is the second highest in the current series (since April 2012), comes after retail inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), surprised analysts to grow at 6.95% in March 2022.
A labourer carries a sack of onions at a wholesale market in Kolkata.(REUTERS)
A labourer carries a sack of onions at a wholesale market in Kolkata.(REUTERS)
Updated on Apr 19, 2022 05:04 AM IST
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Terms of Trade | Is the communal tail wagging the secular dog in India?

While India’s secular parties continue to wax eloquent about the country’s composite culture and the eventual defeat of communalism, there seems to be extreme reluctance to make efforts on the ground to counter communalism
While it is nobody’s case that the British Raj did not encourage fissures between Hindus and Muslims in India, blanket claims of communal harmony have been questioned by many Indian scholars. (Sanchit Khanna/HT PHOTO)
While it is nobody’s case that the British Raj did not encourage fissures between Hindus and Muslims in India, blanket claims of communal harmony have been questioned by many Indian scholars. (Sanchit Khanna/HT PHOTO)
Updated on Apr 15, 2022 08:27 PM IST
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Retail inflation climbs to 6.95% on food prices

India’s benchmark inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped to 6.95%, the highest in 17 months, in the month of March. This is significantly higher than what analysts expected.
Fitch Solutions said elevated retail inflation in India is a key risk to consumer spending over the remainder of this year, as it can erode purchasing power.ht(MINT_PRINT)
Fitch Solutions said elevated retail inflation in India is a key risk to consumer spending over the remainder of this year, as it can erode purchasing power.ht(MINT_PRINT)
Updated on Apr 13, 2022 01:17 AM IST
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By, New Delhi

Making sense of inflation and the IIP numbers

The National Statistical Office (NSO) released the numbers for Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for February on April 12
CPI growth surged to 6.95% in March, and IIP growth was a muted 1.7% in February. (REUTERS PHOTO.)
CPI growth surged to 6.95% in March, and IIP growth was a muted 1.7% in February. (REUTERS PHOTO.)
Updated on Apr 13, 2022 06:56 AM IST
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Four charts that explain why the MPC is worried about the Indian economy

Almost all indicators from RBI’s forward looking surveys suggest that while the economy is in recovery mode, its momentum is far from satisfactory. While consumer confidence has been increasing since September 2021 , it is still way below pre-pandemic levels.
MPC expects Consumer Price Index (CPI) to grow at 5.7% in 2022-23. This is 120 basis points higher than its 4.5% forecast in the February meeting.(Mint Archives)
MPC expects Consumer Price Index (CPI) to grow at 5.7% in 2022-23. This is 120 basis points higher than its 4.5% forecast in the February meeting.(Mint Archives)
Updated on Apr 09, 2022 11:47 AM IST
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By, Hindustan Times, New Delhi

RBI cuts growth, raises FY23 inflation forecast

Inflation and growth forecasts given in the MPC resolution published on April 8 underline the recalibration in policy. Benchmark inflation growth, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is expected to be 5.7% in 2022-23, a sharp increase from the 4.5% forecast in the February meeting (it took place before the Russian invasion of Ukraine).
RBI’s comments also suggest that the onus of managing growth is now largely with the government -- with the central bank beginning to manage inflation.
RBI’s comments also suggest that the onus of managing growth is now largely with the government -- with the central bank beginning to manage inflation.
Updated on Apr 09, 2022 06:31 AM IST
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By, Hindustan Times, New Delhi

Terms of Trade | What drives competitive populism in India?

  • Is this new wave of competitive populism going to lead to a fiscal disaster in the country? Who exactly is responsible for this kind of behavior? And can a political consensus be built to prevent such spending by state governments?
Political scientists have been arguing that the BJP has been making a concerted effort to centralise welfare delivery which also leads to greater attribution for giving these benefits to none other than the Prime Minister. (ANI)
Political scientists have been arguing that the BJP has been making a concerted effort to centralise welfare delivery which also leads to greater attribution for giving these benefits to none other than the Prime Minister. (ANI)
Published on Apr 08, 2022 06:38 PM IST
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India’s great poverty debate: Season 2

Almost two and a half years after the 2017-18 Consumption Expenditure Survey (CES) was scrapped, the ‘great Indian poverty debate’ seems to have resurrected itself. The second season of this debate, interestingly, has started from Washington DC, not India.
Poverty statistics in India have always been the subject of controversy.(AFP file photo)
Poverty statistics in India have always been the subject of controversy.(AFP file photo)
Updated on Apr 09, 2022 11:46 AM IST
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By, Hindustan Times, New Delhi

RBI’s growth-inflation balance to get tougher

The global economic landscape has undergone a major disruption since the previous meeting, which ended on February, because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Economists believe the forthcoming MPC will make a downward revision to its growth forecast.(Reuters file photo)
Economists believe the forthcoming MPC will make a downward revision to its growth forecast.(Reuters file photo)
Updated on Apr 05, 2022 12:09 PM IST
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By, Hindustan Times, New Delhi

Terms of Trade | What explains the predicament of the trade unions in India?

  • This week, “hundreds of millions of workers” participated in a strike across India, which ultimately gained little sympathy in most of the country. Why is that so? What are their demands? 
To be sure, trade unions have seen better days in India, but that was in the pre-reform era. (PTI)
To be sure, trade unions have seen better days in India, but that was in the pre-reform era. (PTI)
Published on Apr 01, 2022 01:54 PM IST
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What challenges does the new fiscal bring for the Indian economy?

The 2022-23 fiscal year begins today
HT Image
HT Image
Published on Mar 31, 2022 10:35 PM IST
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What does the $400 billion export number mean?

India’s goods exports have breached the $400 billion level for the first time in 2021-22, the commerce ministry said in a statement issued on March 23.
Global commodity prices have been increasing over the fiscal year and this is bound to have pushed the value of India’s exports, especially for goods categories such as petroleum products and metals.(Representational image)(AFP)
Global commodity prices have been increasing over the fiscal year and this is bound to have pushed the value of India’s exports, especially for goods categories such as petroleum products and metals.(Representational image)(AFP)
Updated on Mar 29, 2022 11:51 AM IST
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By, New Delhi

Terms of Trade | Why are the fuel hike protests confined to Parliament?

  • Targeted welfare provisioning, when married with targeted political campaigning, can explain why the BJP was able to manage the political anger around inflation.
This kind of inequality, where the poor are witnessing a squeeze on incomes and the rich are not, should have added to the angst over inflation. But what explains the lack of it? (Amal KS/HT Photo)
This kind of inequality, where the poor are witnessing a squeeze on incomes and the rich are not, should have added to the angst over inflation. But what explains the lack of it? (Amal KS/HT Photo)
Published on Mar 25, 2022 03:55 PM IST
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2 yrs since lockdown: Covid has changed how India moves, works, and consumes

  • How stringent was India’s lockdown when it was first imposed, and what has been India’s unlock progress compared to the rest of the world?
A deserted view of Marine Drive during lockdown in Mumbai in April 2020. (Pratik Chorge/HT photo)
A deserted view of Marine Drive during lockdown in Mumbai in April 2020. (Pratik Chorge/HT photo)
Updated on Mar 24, 2022 11:24 AM IST
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ByAbhishek Jha,

Understanding the crisis plaguing the Congress

The Congress has been facing a decline in its fortunes for a much longer time, not just over the last decade or two when its vote share dropped below the 20% threshold for the first time in 2014, and later in 2019.
The Congress faces its biggest crisis in its ability to convert popular support into seats. (Reuters File Photo)
The Congress faces its biggest crisis in its ability to convert popular support into seats. (Reuters File Photo)
Updated on Mar 23, 2022 12:33 PM IST
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ByRoshan Kishore and Abhishek Jha
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Tuesday, May 17, 2022