Roshan Kishore

Roshan Kishore

Roshan Kishore is a journalist with Hindustan Times in New Delhi. He focuses on political economy issues with a data-driven approach.

Articles by Roshan Kishore
Customers are paying more in taxes than the base price for petrol and diesel according to the latest price data for petrol and diesel.(Amal KS/ Hindustan Times)
Customers are paying more in taxes than the base price for petrol and diesel according to the latest price data for petrol and diesel.(Amal KS/ Hindustan Times)

Case to get petrol, diesel under the ambit of GST

By Roshan Kishore, Hindustan Times, New Delhi
UPDATED ON MAR 05, 2021 07:35 AM IST
  • At a time when petrol and diesel prices are at an all-time high, and taxes have a bigger component in the retail price than the base price of the fuels, it is worth revisiting the debate
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Cities in southern and western India, which perform the best on the more tangible indicators, have the lowest positive bias in their overall scores on account of CPS. The CPS bias is also higher in smaller cities than larger ones.(Sonu Mehta/HT PHOTO)
Cities in southern and western India, which perform the best on the more tangible indicators, have the lowest positive bias in their overall scores on account of CPS. The CPS bias is also higher in smaller cities than larger ones.(Sonu Mehta/HT PHOTO)

N-E cities have the strongest feel-good factor

By Roshan Kishore, Hindustan Times, New Delhi
PUBLISHED ON MAR 05, 2021 02:19 AM IST
  • The EOL report has calculated its overall scores on the basis of four parameters: quality of life, economic ability, sustainability and citizen perception.
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A gathering at the Brigade rally, organised by the Left Front, Indian National Congress and Indian Secular Front (ISF), ahead of the West Bengal assembly election in Kolkata on February 28, 2021. (Samir Jana/HT Photo)
A gathering at the Brigade rally, organised by the Left Front, Indian National Congress and Indian Secular Front (ISF), ahead of the West Bengal assembly election in Kolkata on February 28, 2021. (Samir Jana/HT Photo)

West Bengal: How the Left diluted its own politics to try and outmanoeuvre TMC

By Roshan Kishore, Hindustan Times, New Delhi
UPDATED ON MAR 02, 2021 12:30 PM IST
The CPI(M)-led Left lost its base among peasantry; its alliance with the Congress was counterproductive; it lost Hindu votes to BJP and Muslim votes to TMC; and now, by allying with a Muslim cleric, it has lost its principled stand on religion and politics
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Representational image. (Bloomberg)
Representational image. (Bloomberg)

A taper tantrum around 2024 polls could be Modi govt’s biggest economic trial

By Roshan Kishore, Hindustan Times, New Delhi
UPDATED ON MAR 01, 2021 06:17 PM IST
While most of the economic analysis around the pandemic’s impact on the Indian economy has focused on domestic factors, there is merit in looking at the impact of a near-certain economic disruption to the Indian economy in the next few years
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The economy has gradually recovered and come back in expansion zone in the third quarter (October-December) with a GDP growth of 0.4%.(Reuters)
The economy has gradually recovered and come back in expansion zone in the third quarter (October-December) with a GDP growth of 0.4%.(Reuters)

Year into pandemic, economy in polarised place

UPDATED ON MAR 01, 2021 07:06 AM IST
It was on March 24 that Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a comprehensive nationwide lockdown beginning March 25. This lockdown, which lasted for 68 days, was among the most stringent in the world and virtually brought all non-essential economic activities to a halt.
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To be sure, the Indian economy will still face its largest ever contraction in the current fiscal year.(AP file photo. Representative image)
To be sure, the Indian economy will still face its largest ever contraction in the current fiscal year.(AP file photo. Representative image)

India out of recession as GDP expands 0.4% in Q3

By Roshan Kishore, New Delhi
PUBLISHED ON FEB 27, 2021 02:43 AM IST
India’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 0.4% on a year-on-year basis in the quarter ending December 2020, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on February 26.
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The states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Assam account for 13% out of the 543 seats in Lok Sabha.(File photo. Representative image)
The states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Assam account for 13% out of the 543 seats in Lok Sabha.(File photo. Representative image)

Five charts that explain the upcoming elections

By Abhishek Jha, Roshan Kishore
PUBLISHED ON FEB 27, 2021 01:22 AM IST
Three out of the four states going to polls; Assam, West Bengal and Kerala are also the top three states by share of Muslims in the population. With 26.7% Muslims and 16.6% Christians, Kerala has the lowest share of Hindus -- to be sure, they are still a majority – among India’s important states.
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The BJP’s political dominance may, paradoxically in some ways, deepen social divisions (Burhaan Kinu/HT PHOTO)
The BJP’s political dominance may, paradoxically in some ways, deepen social divisions (Burhaan Kinu/HT PHOTO)

The disruptive social effects of Hindutva 2.0

PUBLISHED ON FEB 24, 2021 09:10 PM IST
It is the electoral hegemony of the BJP which can deepen the sense of betrayal among those who feel short-changed by the side effects of Hindutva 2.0
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Even though food inflation has fallen sharply in the last three months, inflation in edible oils continues to stay high.(Representational)
Even though food inflation has fallen sharply in the last three months, inflation in edible oils continues to stay high.(Representational)

Number Theory: Atmanirbharta may help India’s other oil problem

PUBLISHED ON FEB 19, 2021 01:03 AM IST
Speaking at an event in Tamil Nadu, Prime Minister Narendra Modi linked the issue with India’s high import-dependence for energy needs. “Can a diverse and talented nation like ours be so energy import dependent?” he asked.
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A worker holds a nozzle to pump petrol into a vehicle at a fuel station in Mumbai, India. (Reuters)
A worker holds a nozzle to pump petrol into a vehicle at a fuel station in Mumbai, India. (Reuters)

How central and state taxes are adding to the pain at the pump

By Roshan Kishore, Vineet Sachdev
PUBLISHED ON FEB 18, 2021 07:14 AM IST
According to data from the ministry of petroleum, the price of India’s Crude Oil Basket (COB) increased from an average of $40.7 per barrel in October 2020 to $62.64 per barrel on February 16, 2021. That’s an increase of 54%.
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Recently released high-frequency indicators suggest that the rural demand story might be heading into rough weather once again. (Vipin Kumar/HT Photo)
Recently released high-frequency indicators suggest that the rural demand story might be heading into rough weather once again. (Vipin Kumar/HT Photo)

Rural demand engine choking once again?

PUBLISHED ON FEB 15, 2021 02:24 AM IST
The biggest reason for this seems to be the usual culprit, a worsening of the terms of trade against farmers. However, the weakness in labour markets in the cities is also contributing to the crisis. Here are four points that explain these trends.
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BKU spokesperson Rakesh Tikait during a 'Kisan Mahapanchayat' in support of the ongoing farmers' agitation against Centre's farm reform laws, at Bahadurgarh in Jhajjar district.(PTI)
BKU spokesperson Rakesh Tikait during a 'Kisan Mahapanchayat' in support of the ongoing farmers' agitation against Centre's farm reform laws, at Bahadurgarh in Jhajjar district.(PTI)

Farmers, Hindutva, businesses: The trinity of political economy

PUBLISHED ON FEB 15, 2021 01:17 AM IST
Why did Tikait’s appeal, when faced with police attempts to vacate the protest site, go viral? Clearly, Jats perceived Tikait’s possible arrest or persecution as the State coming down on the legacy of his father, Mahendra Singh Tikait.
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Food inflation has collapsed in the last three months—it grew at 9.5% in November 2020, 3.4% in December 2020 and 1.9% in January 2021.(Shankar Narayan/HT file photo)
Food inflation has collapsed in the last three months—it grew at 9.5% in November 2020, 3.4% in December 2020 and 1.9% in January 2021.(Shankar Narayan/HT file photo)

CPI inflation eases in January, IIP returns to growth path in Dec

By Roshan Kishore, New Delhi
UPDATED ON FEB 13, 2021 06:00 AM IST
  • The inflation numbers are in keeping with the RBI’s projection of a moderation in price levels, and lower than the 4.45% projection made by a Reuters poll of economists.
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Many, including the government, claim that the economy is on course to a V-shaped recovery, and the lockdown has not left any significant scars on the economy.(Reuters)
Many, including the government, claim that the economy is on course to a V-shaped recovery, and the lockdown has not left any significant scars on the economy.(Reuters)

Number Theory: The data India needs to diagnose the economy

By Roshan Kishore, New Delhi
UPDATED ON FEB 12, 2021 11:12 AM IST
Most forecasters, institutional and private, have revised their GDP estimates for both 2020-21 and 2021-22.
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People wearing protective masks look up at the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai, India, on Thursday, Jan. 21, 2021. (Bloomberg)
People wearing protective masks look up at the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai, India, on Thursday, Jan. 21, 2021. (Bloomberg)

Four charts on the state of the Indian economy

By Roshan Kishore, New Delhi
UPDATED ON FEB 08, 2021 04:38 AM IST
  • While the MPC has projected real GDP growth at 10.5% in 2021-22, the Budget assumes nominal growth of 14.4%. What exactly is the state of the Indian economy?
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With the central government announcing a higher than expected fiscal deficit and borrowing plan, experts also saw the MPC’s decision as an attempt to strike a balance between fiscal and monetary policy goals.(File photo)
With the central government announcing a higher than expected fiscal deficit and borrowing plan, experts also saw the MPC’s decision as an attempt to strike a balance between fiscal and monetary policy goals.(File photo)

RBI says economy is moving in only one direction: Up

By Roshan Kishore, New Delhi
PUBLISHED ON FEB 06, 2021 12:18 AM IST
While the formal sector of the economy seems to be on a strong recovery path, consumer sentiment, as seen in RBI’s Consumer Confidence Survey, has not shown a concomitant recovery, although it has shown sequential improvement over the past two rounds conducted in November 2020 and January 2021.
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By bringing hitherto uncounted expenditure heads into the budgetary numbers, and accounting for past dues, the budget has done away with the dubious practice of artificially underreporting the fiscal deficit numbers.(Reuters)
By bringing hitherto uncounted expenditure heads into the budgetary numbers, and accounting for past dues, the budget has done away with the dubious practice of artificially underreporting the fiscal deficit numbers.(Reuters)

What is the actual fiscal stimulus in the budget?

By Roshan Kishore, New Delhi
UPDATED ON FEB 03, 2021 08:07 AM IST
Here are three charts which can help us understand this.
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While the government did spend more than what the last budget allocated to this heads, it has decided against continuing its distress relief push in the next fiscal year as things return to normal.(HT Photo)
While the government did spend more than what the last budget allocated to this heads, it has decided against continuing its distress relief push in the next fiscal year as things return to normal.(HT Photo)

Will budget 2021-22 alleviate distress ?

By Roshan Kishore, New Delhi
UPDATED ON FEB 02, 2021 07:19 AM IST
Allocation for National Social Assistance Programme, which was increased to 42,617 crore in 2020-21 (RE) from the 2020-21 BE allocation of 9,197 crore has been brought down to 9,200 crore in the 2021-22 BE numbers.
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The other potential game changer in the infra sector is the focus on asset monetisation.(HT Photo)
The other potential game changer in the infra sector is the focus on asset monetisation.(HT Photo)

Will budget 2021-22 boost infra ?

By Roshan Kishore, New Delhi
UPDATED ON FEB 02, 2021 07:21 AM IST
This year’s budget has announced the creation of a Development Finance Institution (DFI), an idea India tried in the pre-reforms era before giving up. What is new is the unprecedented expansion in scope for private sector activity in infrastructure this budget proposes.
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Nirmala Sitharaman said in her budget speech on Monday that she expects the fiscal deficit to come down to 4.5% by 2025-26.(Bloomberg)
Nirmala Sitharaman said in her budget speech on Monday that she expects the fiscal deficit to come down to 4.5% by 2025-26.(Bloomberg)

Will budget 2021-22 balance the fisc?

By Roshan Kishore, New Delhi
UPDATED ON FEB 02, 2021 07:20 AM IST
Not only has the fiscal deficit reached an all-time high of 9.5% of GDP in 2020-21,as per the Revised Estimates (RE) given in the 2021-22 budget, it is not expected to come down anytime soon.
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The central government has pinned its hopes from public and private capital spending, and further enhancing ease of doing business.(HT Photo)
The central government has pinned its hopes from public and private capital spending, and further enhancing ease of doing business.(HT Photo)

Will budget 2021-22 spur growth?

By Roshan Kishore, New Delhi
UPDATED ON FEB 02, 2021 11:33 AM IST
Fiscal deficit as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has gone up from the 2020-21 Budget Estimate (BE) of 3.5% to a massive 9.5% according to the Revised Estimate (RE) numbers.
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HT Image
HT Image

Will the Budget alleviate distress?

PUBLISHED ON FEB 02, 2021 12:33 AM IST
India imposed one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world to prevent the spread of Covid-19 infections
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HT Image
HT Image

Long term finance and a bigger playing field for private sector to lead infra push

PUBLISHED ON FEB 02, 2021 12:32 AM IST
The Narendra Modi government has set itself a target of creating a 111 lakh crore National Infrastructure Pipeline by 2025
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The states received around <span class='webrupee'>₹</span>650,000 crore from central taxes in 2019-20. This number went down to about <span class='webrupee'>₹</span>549,000 crore in 2020-21.(HT Photo)
The states received around 650,000 crore from central taxes in 2019-20. This number went down to about 549,000 crore in 2020-21.(HT Photo)

States likely to face crisis as govt pegs tax share at 30%

UPDATED ON FEB 02, 2021 02:54 AM IST
The 2021-22 Budget Estimates (BE) figures put states’ share in central taxes at 665,563 crore. With Gross Tax Revenues expected to be 2,217,059 crore, this share comes to 30%.
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Allocations for MGNREGS, food subsidy and other schemes have been reduced sharply.(PTI)
Allocations for MGNREGS, food subsidy and other schemes have been reduced sharply.(PTI)

In shadow of pandemic, Centre hikes capital, revenue spending

UPDATED ON FEB 02, 2021 02:48 AM IST
The 2021-22 Budget numbers have confirmed that expectation; 2020-21 will be the year in which India ran up its highest ever fiscal deficit, an estimated 9.5% of gross domestic product (GDP).
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HT Image
HT Image

How the fiscal math changed during and after the pandemic?

UPDATED ON FEB 02, 2021 12:31 AM IST
When Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the 2020-21 Union Budget last year, she announced that the Revised Estimate (RE) for the 2019-20 fiscal deficit would be 3
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HT Image
HT Image

What does the budget do to boost growth?

UPDATED ON FEB 02, 2021 12:30 AM IST
The 2021-22 budget, on the face of it, has given a massive fiscal boost to the economy
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The possible clash between the government’s assumptions and the reality of the economy will determine India’s trajectory in the next year (ANI)
The possible clash between the government’s assumptions and the reality of the economy will determine India’s trajectory in the next year (ANI)

Where the budget gets India’s economy wrong

By Roshan Kishore
PUBLISHED ON FEB 01, 2021 09:34 PM IST
The budget has pinned its hopes on supply-side economics, while the economy is facing a demand-side crisis
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Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.(ANI)
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.(ANI)

Number Theory: Five numbers to watch out for in the Budget

UPDATED ON FEB 01, 2021 07:53 AM IST
Here are five numbers worth tracking in this year’s budget.
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While the increase in agricultural production has ensured that India does not have to lead a ‘ship-to-mouth’ existence, this has not necessarily translated into higher incomes for farmers.(AP)
While the increase in agricultural production has ensured that India does not have to lead a ‘ship-to-mouth’ existence, this has not necessarily translated into higher incomes for farmers.(AP)

Why govt will need to adopt a different economic strategy

By Roshan Kishore, New Delhi
UPDATED ON JAN 31, 2021 08:34 AM IST
The economic strategy to revive the economy from its current predicament will have to be very different from the previous episodes of contraction.
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