The central government has pegged India's GDP growth rate at 7.4% in FY26, underscoring the resilience of the Indian economy in the face of Trump tariffs and in the absence of an India-US trade deal.
The projection is higher than that of the Reserve Bank of India's at 7.3% and beat FY25's GDP growth rate of 7.3%. In FY24, it was 9.2%.
The first advance GDP estimates, released by the Union Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Wednesday, are almost in line with the median estimate of 7.5% in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The estimates are likely to be revised in Union Budget 2026, with the final figures released after the financial year ends.
The government is also set to revise how it calculates gross domestic product—a move that could materially alter growth estimates.
According to India's first advance GDP estimates put out by MOSPI:
- India's nominal gross domestic product is expected to grow by 8% in FY26, as against 9.7% in FY25.
- The real gross value added (GVA) is projected to grow at 7.3% in FY26, as against 6.4% in FY25.
- India's nominal GVA is projected to expand by 7.7% in FY26, as against 9.3% in FY25.
India Advance GDP Estimates: Key Highlights
- Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of India's GDP, was seen expanding by 7% year-on-year compared to a 7.2% expansion last fiscal year.
- Government spending is estimated to rise by 5.2% year-on-year in FY26, up from 2.3% in FY25, while private investment is seen rising by 7.8%, higher than the 7.1% growth the year before.
- Manufacturing, which accounts for about 13% of India's GDP, is projected to expand 7% year-on-year in FY26, compared with 4.5% a year ago.
- Growth in India's agriculture sector, which employs more than 40% of the workforce, was seen picking up to 3.1% in FY26 from 4.6% a year ago.
- Construction activity is seen growing 7% in FY26, down from 9.4% in FY25.
India Advance GDP Estimates: Key Highlights
- Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of India's GDP, was seen expanding by 7% year-on-year compared to a 7.2% expansion last fiscal year.
- Government spending is estimated to rise by 5.2% year-on-year in FY26, up from 2.3% in FY25, while private investment is seen rising by 7.8%, higher than the 7.1% growth the year before.
- Manufacturing, which accounts for about 13% of India's GDP, is projected to expand 7% year-on-year in FY26, compared with 4.5% a year ago.
- Growth in India's agriculture sector, which employs more than 40% of the workforce, was seen picking up to 3.1% in FY26 from 4.6% a year ago.
- Construction activity is seen growing 7% in FY26, down from 9.4% in FY25.