LUCKNOW The Bharatiya Janata Party’s recent losses in the Bankipur (Bihar) and Datia (Madhya Pradesh) bypolls have revitalised the Opposition, raising the stakes for Uttar Pradesh’s 2027 assembly elections.
The opposition is upbeat after the victory of Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) founder Prashant Kishor in the Bankipur seat that was vacated by BJP national president Nitin Nabin after his election to the Rajya Sabha. The Congress’ victory in Datia has also boosted the opposition’s morale.
Located in the Hindi heartland, both MP and Bihar are adjacent to Uttar Pradesh. The caste factor dominates the politics of the three states. The caste card has been played by parties to win the support of various communities in the assembly and Lok Sabha elections. After the Ram temple movement, the religion card has come to fore in UP politics to polarize voters in the polls.
The shift of the upper caste voters, including Brahmin, Rajput, Vaish and Bhumihar, to the JSP in the Bankipur bypoll and the OBCs rallying behind the Congress in the Datia by-election have set alarm bells in the BJP. The upper castes are considered the traditional support base of the BJP. Riding on the upper caste-OBC formula, the BJP won the 2017 and 2022 assembly elections in UP.
Confident that they can breach the upper caste support base of the BJP in UP as well, leaders of opposition parties have started working on the strategy to win support of upper castes in the 2027 assembly election.
{{/usCountry}}Confident that they can breach the upper caste support base of the BJP in UP as well, leaders of opposition parties have started working on the strategy to win support of upper castes in the 2027 assembly election.
{{/usCountry}}Speaking in a programme organised to mark the birth anniversary of socialist leader and prominent Brahmin leader Janeshwar Mishra on August 5, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav reset the party PDA (Pichhde, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) formula stating that ‘P’ stands for Pandit, to send a message to the Brahmin community. He also announced that Pawan Pandey will be SP candidate from the prestigious Ayodhya assembly seat. The aim was to send a message to the Brahmin community that they will get adequate tickets in the upcoming assembly election, if they show allegiance to the SP.
To woo the Brahmin community that played a pivotal role in the formation of the BSP government in 2007, BSP chief Mayawati announced that candidates from Brahmin community will get a lion’s share in the distribution of tickets for the UP polls.
UP Congress Committee president Ajay Rai said the party is working to regain its hold over its traditional support base in UP - Brahmins, Dalits and Muslims. Along with highlighting the “neglect of the Brahmin community under the BJP government in UP”, the Congress has launched intellectual and cultural outreach dialogues to win their support for the 2027 polls.
In the 2022 assembly elections, the BJP bagged 255 seats, polling 41.29% votes; NDA alliance partners Nishad party bagged 6 seats, polling 0.91% and Apna Dal (S) bagged 12 seats, polling 1.62% votes. The SP secured victory on 111 seats, polling 32.06% votes, its alliance partner RLD won 8 seats, polling 2.85% votes and SBSP bagged 6 seats, polling 1.36% votes. NDA alliance secured victory on 255 seats, polling 43.82% votes while the SP alliance secured victory on 125 seats, polling 36.60% votes.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, INDIA bloc (SP-Congress alliance) bagged 43 seats while NDA alliance bagged 36 seats. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP polled approximately 50% votes to bag 62 seats. However, the combined vote share of the BSP, SP, and Congress was 43.9%, winning mere 17 seats.
In 2024 LS elections, INDIA bloc made major gains making inroads into the Dalit support base of the BSP, particularly non-Jatav voters. It also managed to dent the OBC support base of the BJP by winning support of Kurmi, Kushwaha, Shakya, Saini and Nishad communities. The upper caste voters stood solidly with the BJP. Surveys by various election research agencies indicated that 75% to 80% of the upper caste vote went to the NDA in 2017 and 2022 assembly polls as well as 2014, 2019 and 2024 LS elections.
The upper caste voters make up approximately 18% to 20% of the total electorate of UP. Brahmins account for 10%, followed by Rajputs 7%, Vaish 3%, Bhumihars/Kayasthas and others 3% of the voters. The upper caste vote is decisive in around 125 assembly seats in the state. A tilt in the upper caste vote, particularly the Brahmins that the opposition is targeting, can make an adverse impact on the fortunes of the NDA in the 2027 polls.
Even as the INDIA bloc seat tally was 43 compared to 36 seats won by NDA in 2024 LS polls, the vote share of both alliances was nearly at par with each other – approximately 43%, said political observer RK Sinha, adding yet the electoral dynamics had not changed much post 2024.
“The Gen-Z protest and ire among upper caste over the UGC’s Promotion of Equity in Higher Education Institutions Regulations, 2026, has added to the woes of the BJP. If there is a marginal shift in upper caste voters in the upcoming assembly polls, it could prove detrimental to the prospects of NDA,” he said.
After the cabinet expansion in May, BJP rejigged the state organisation in UP to reset the caste dynamics with focus on the assembly elections. Along with addressing the upper caste ire over the UGC guideline, the party is also working to address the youth anger following protest over NEET paper leak.
BJP state unit president Pankaj Chaudhary said the party is organizing intellectuals; meet under the upper caste outreach.
Along with launching various schemes focused on employment of youths, chief minister, Yogi Adityanath said youths were on priority of state government with over nine lakh of them being given employment by the government in nine years. “The security environment created by the double engine government has created better opportunities for investments, paving way for employment of youths in their home districts. Schemes launched by the government have brought change in lives of crores of youths,” he said.
A prominent Brahmin face of the BJP, deputy chief minister Brajesh Pathak said: “SP’s Brahmin outreach effort is opportunistic appeasement politics. It is adopting “British-like divide and rule politics,” it seeks Brahmin support only during elections but focuses on power within ‘a single family’ after victory in election. Brahmins will support NDA in the 2027 assembly elections,” he added.