The disqualification riddle

The Supreme Court's directive on the disqualification petition against Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has created uncertainty in the Shiv Sena and NCP factions. MLAs from both parties are concerned about the impact of the verdict on the ruling alliance's prospects in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. There is speculation that the Assembly may be dissolved after the verdict, leading to simultaneous elections for both the Lok Sabha and Assembly. Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar's recent actions have also confused allies, with some wondering if he is sulking or trying to distance himself from the BJP. Meanwhile, Sharad Pawar's interactions with rivals have caused unease among his allies. Finally, leaders of the Janata Dal (Secular) in Maharashtra are planning to dissociate themselves from former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda's decision to join the BJP.

With the Supreme Court issuing a directive to Maharashtra Assembly Speaker Rahul Narwekar on conducting the hearing on disqualification petition against chief minister Eknath Shinde and his MLAs, there is a sense of uncertainty in the Shinde-led Shiv Sena and also the Ajit Pawar-led faction of the NCP.

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Several MLAs in both these parties are wondering what lies ahead for them: Narwekar may have to deliver the verdict in a couple of months. If it goes in favour of Shinde, Shiv Sena (UBT) will challenge it in the Supreme Court. The hearing may not be long considering the apex court has already discussed the case. If the SC rules in favour of disqualification, it will be applicable to all 40 MLAs with Shinde. Not just that, Sharad Pawar faction of NCP may also approach the apex course since their petition against Ajit and Co is almost similar. If this happens in the first couple of months next year, it could coincide with the Lok Sabha elections or with the beginning of the campaign for Lok Sabha elections. MLAs from both the parties are wondering if it will affect the prospects of the ruling alliance.

Several BJP leaders are of the opinion that the best option to prevent panic among its allies could be by dissolving the Assembly immediately after the Speaker’s verdict with Shinde saying the alliance would seek a fresh mandate from the people. In that case, Maharashtra will have simultaneous elections for both Lok Sabha and Assembly. However, the BJP’s allies in the government are not keen on simultaneous elections though in theory they are supporting the ‘One Nation One Election’ concept.

What is Ajit upto?

Deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar has confused his allies in the past few days. First, he chose not to visit Maratha reservation activist Manoj Jarange-Patil who was sitting on a hunger strike seeking Kunbi caste certificates for Marathas for benefits of reservation. It was said that Ajit was not happy with the government bending over backwards to accept Jarange-Patil’s demands. On Thursday, he spoke in favour of reservation for the Muslim community. He said he would discuss the issue with chief minister Shinde and deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis. The BJP is opposed to reservation to Muslim community. Fadnavis had taken a clear stand on this during his tenure as chief minister.

Then, on Saturday, Ajit skipped union home minister Amit Shah’s visit to Mumbai. He chose to attend programmes in his constituency, Baramati instead. Moreover, at a function there, he even remarked that how he is finance minister now but does not know what would happen in the future.

His allies are confused whether he is sulking or just trying to show he is not toeing the BJP line to get those traditional NCP votes which would be crucial for his MLAs after their rebellion against Sharad Pawar.

Senior Pawar keeps allies guessing

While nephew Ajit has confused BJP-Shiv Sena, uncle Sharad Pawar’s allies in Maharashtra are wondering how to react to his hobnobbing with those in their rival camp and those who rebelled against him. On Saturday, Congress leaders did not hide their unhappiness when Pawar attended a function organised by industrialist Gautam Adani and visited his residence in Ahmedabad. Adani Group is the target of the Opposition coalition, INDIA, of which Pawar is a key partner. Earlier on Thursday, a picture posted by an old associate of Pawar, Praful Patel, who is now with Ajit Pawar, went viral. In the picture, Sharad Pawar and Patel were seen standing together in the New Parliament building. While Congress leaders in the state smirked when mediapersons sought their reactions, a couple of leaders of the Pawar faction later claimed that the NCP chief expressed unhappiness with Patel for posting the picture on the social media. It also evoked reactions from the Shiv Sena (UBT) camp.

Janata Dal (S) headed for a split in Maharashtra

Former prime minister H D Deve Gowda’s decision to join the BJP camp has angered leaders of Janata Dal (Secular) in Maharashtra. Prominent leaders and workers of the party unit in Maharashtra have decided to dissociate themselves from the decision. They have now called a meeting in Pune on September 30 to decide what to do next. The Janata Dal (S) in Maharashtra is already supporting the INDIA coalition. “Under no circumstances will we go with BJP,” the party workers have said in a release.