Maharashtra polls: Will Marathwada spoil Mahayuti’s game again?

Marathwada's assembly elections could reflect ongoing discontent with the ruling coalition, influenced by caste dynamics and farmer distress

Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar/Beed: Marathwada, comprising eight districts in central Maharashtra, played a significant part in skewing the numbers against the ruling Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha elections six months ago. But will this trend sustain in the assembly elections, and will Manoj Jarange-Patil’s drive for Maratha quota play a part?

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde with Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar. (Photo by Raju Shinde/HT Photo)(Hindustan Times)

Marathwada, which has 46 assembly seats, has seen many stalwart leaders such as Raosaheb Danve, Pankaja Munde and Pratap Chikhalikar, backed by former chief minister Ashok Chavan, lose their seats six months ago. The ruling coalition could win only one of eight seats in the region. Insiders from the alliance believe though the intensity of the shock has reduced, the losses may sustain.

Of the 188 sitting MLAs from BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP, only 94 were trailing in the Lok Sabha election in their respective constituencies.

Will Jarange-Patil stir the pot?

As he did during the Lok Sabha polls, Manoj Jarange-Patil has continued his diatribe against the ruling coalition. Regardless of his flip-flops about entering the election fray (he finally decided against fielding candidates), he has appealed to people from the community to vote against the Mahayuti candidates. But, unlike six months ago, he did not hold meetings in Maratha dominated areas. This, activists from his team, feel “may dent the direct impact of the agitation in the polls”.

BJP leaders concurred. “Marathas are upset over Jarange-Patil not campaigning actively against the ruling alliance. Had he contested the elections, as announced earlier, it would have affected us owing to the division of votes. On the other hand, the OBC consolidation after the Lok Sabha polls, is also not working in our favour,” a BJP leader from Marathwada told HT.

Many candidates in the fray have been meeting the quota activist seeking his support for community votes. Senior BJP leader Raosaheb Danve’s son and sitting MLA Santosh Danve, senior BJP leader Ashok Chavan, Congress candidate from Nanded Meenal Patil Khatgaokar, Beed constituency’s independent candidate Jyoti Mete were some who recently met Jarange-Patil at his Antarwali Sarathi office.

“I am not holding any meetings for the campaigning for assembly polls. In fact, I am preparing for the agitation that will begin after the election,” Jarange-Patil said.

Maratha Vs OBC

The rift between Marathas and OBCs widened when the two communities came face to face over the issue of reservation. After the Lok Sabha results, many villages witnessed the two boycotting each other by passing resolutions and releasing messages on social media. The rift intensified when OBC quota activist Laxman Hake held protests in response to Jarange-Patil’s agitations. This resulted in a verbal spat that sometimes turned violent in parts of Jalna and other adjoining districts.

“There is a consolidation of OBC votes and the community has decided to vote only OBC candidates in respective parties. They are determined to defeat leaders like Pankaja Munde, Mahadev Jankar and Imtiaz Jaleel,” said Baliram Khatake, OBC protest coordinator from Jalna.

Matter of prestige

While the Mahayuti has fielded Marathas in 28 of 46 constituencies in Marathwada and a sizeable representation from OBCs, in Marathwada, it is struggling with rebellion within the alliance.

In Mukhed, Nanded, Shiv Sena leader Balaji Khatgaonkar has filed nomination against BJP’s sitting MLA Tushar Rathod, which may jeopardize Rathod’s prospects.

Senior leaders are also struggling to retain their or their kin’s constituencies. In Jalna, former union minister and BJP’s election in-charge Raosaheb Danve is fighting to elect his son Santosh from Bhokardan and daughter Sanjana from Kannad. Agriculture minister Dhananjay Munde is on a sticky wicket in Parli where he is facing Maratha candidate Rajesaheb Deshmukh. In Nanded, BJP leader Ashok Chavan is struggling to have his daughter elected from Bhokar, the constituency he represented twice.

Shuja Shakir, head of political science department, Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar Marathwada University, said the quota factor will play a key role in the assembly election. “It could be as severe as Lok Sabha. The Maratha community is still upset with the ruling alliance, especially BJP. If Muslim and Dalit votes also go against the ruling alliance, MVA will stand to gain.”

Issue of farmer distress

Farmers’ distress continues to be a crucial issue in rural parts of Marathwada and Vidarbha. Cash crops in the two regions are fetching a price much below the minimum support price (MSP) announced by the central government. Soybean, a staple in at least 70 assembly segments in the two regions, fetch ₹ 4000 to ₹4200 a quintal against its MSP of ₹4892 a quintal. Likewise, cotton which is grown in same number of constituencies is being sold at ₹6700 a quintal against its MSP of ₹7521 a quintal.

Farmers have not been able to recover their input cost owing to the drastic fall in the procurement price of soyabean. “I was getting ₹3600 a quintal in open market against the MSP of ₹4892 a quintal. I registered myself to sell off my produce in the government selling centre 20 days ago, and am waiting for my turn. The Centre has purchased from just 190 farmers and my number is 300, which means I will have to wait for few more days. Even then, there is no guarantee of getting the full price if the crop fails the moisture content parameter,” said Wardha-based farm activist Vijay Jawandhiya.

Both the ruling and opposition coalitions are now trying to woo farmers by announcing a hike in price of soybean yield. In his rally in Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar on November 14, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, announced the purchasing price of soybean to ₹6000 a quintal. A day before that Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge marked ₹7000 per quintal for the produce. Shiv Sena-UBT chief Uddhav Thackeray in his rally in Marathwada early this week, asked farmers to stock up their produce to wait for his government to come after results for better price.

Farmers’ leader Vijay Jawandhiya however said the distress among farmers may not reflect in the elections, as “other factors such as caste and personal contacts of candidates, will overpower farm issues”.