E-Paper
Replacing BSY may change political discourse: Experts
Bengaluru As the clamour against Karnataka chief minister BS Yediyurappa grows louder, it remains to be seen if it does actually materialise in a leadership change in the state before the 2023 assembly elections
Bengaluru
As the clamour against Karnataka chief minister BS Yediyurappa grows louder, it remains to be seen if it does actually materialise in a leadership change in the state before the 2023 assembly elections.
According to analysts and experts, if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the Centre does manage to replace 78-year-old Yediyurappa, it will bring about a major shift in Karnataka’s political discourse, which thrives on caste equations, coalition building and other local factors that have allowed the likes of Yediyurappa, Siddaramaiah, HD Deve Gowda and HD Kumaraswamy prevail with their signature style of politics for the last two decades, if not longer.
The BJP at the Centre is trying to achieve a smooth shift in power, which, analysts and experts believe, would not be easy. An expert said Yediyurappa in 2013 assembly elections had shown that he could sabotage the saffron outfit’s chances. After Yediyurappa’s departure, the BJP’s tally in the state had reduced to 40 in 2013 from 110 in 2008 assembly elections for 224-seat House, when Yediyurappa led the party.
According to experts, Yediyurappa, Siddaramaiah and Kumaraswamy have effectively curbed the cropping up of any new faces as possible ‘heirs’ or ‘replacements’ in their respective parties. They firmly held the reins of their parties while creating a dearth of alternatives, experts said.
Interestingly, unlike neighbouring Tamil Nadu, where the two late chief ministers and stalwarts – J Jayalalithaa and MK Karunanidhi – shared strong animosities, the top leaders in Karnataka – Yediyurappa, Siddaramaiah and Kumaraswamy – seem to get along fine irrespective of the parties they represent.
CP Yogeshwara, Karnataka’s minister for tourism, ecology and environment, on Thursday said, “The day I became an MLC (member of legislative council) I also said it does not appear as a pure BJP government. It appears to be a three-party government that is taking shape.”
His statement points at how the three leaders from three different parties continue to enjoy a good rapport, irrespective of who is in power – an allegation made by several other legislators and leaders within the BJP.
BJP legislators, especially those who identify dearly with the party’s ideology, have made similar allegations that opposition MLAs have it much easier in the current dispensation, including getting funds released and work for their respective constituencies.
“We would have been better off if we were not from the ruling party,” a first-time MLA told HT in a recent interaction.
In 2013, many believed that Yediyurappa helped in fulfilling Siddaramaiah’s aspirations to become the chief minister by orchestrating the defeat of G Parameshwara of the Congress, a political analyst, who did not wish to be named, said.
Unlike the current central dispensation led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Karnataka’s political culture has largely relied on local equations.
“In Karnataka, it has become politics of extreme decentralisation,” said a Bengaluru-based political analyst, demonstrating how every legislator wields influence over their respective constituencies, irrespective of the party symbol they fight under.
The analyst, requesting not to be named, did not rule out the possibility that the current dissent could well be an effort to deflect the attention away from the management – or the lack of it – of the Covid-19 pandemic in Karnataka.
The 17 turncoats who helped Yediyurappa to power in 2019 are not known to have any strong connection with the BJP’s ideology, party insiders said, adding that there was enough room for them to return to their parent outfits with the confidence of retaining their constituencies.
Karnataka over the years has shuffled between Lingayats and Vokkaligas, the two most dominant caste groups in the state, for the top post. Projecting Pralhad Joshi, a Brahmin, as a possible alternative, analysts said, was indicative that the BJP was trying to consolidate its vote bank using the Hindutva card and not pandering to any particular community.
“The BJP is known to spring surprises,” said a north Karnataka-based political analyst, requesting anonymity. He referred to the high command’s apparent ignoring of Yediyurappa’s recommendations for the nominations to Rajya Sabha and the state legislative council.
“When the leadership is dominant, political parties tend to forget their relationship with others,” the analyst said, referring to the central leadership of the BJP.
The BJP is known to have strong ties with the Janata Dal (Secular) in Old Mysuru region where the former helps the latter to keep the Congress, which the two sides believe to be the common enemy, at bay.
The JD(S), led by Gowda and former CM Kumaraswamy, has allied with both the Congress and the BJP in the past and is the only major player in the state with the ability to reign over the other despite not measuring up in terms of numbers.
A Narayana, political analyst and faculty at Azim Premji University, said it all depends on who the BJP chooses next.
“If they (BJP central leadership) choose a Lingayat leader, the kind of coalition that Yediyurappa has had so far, it is possible for the new leader to build as well depending on how the new person communicates with this constituency (Lingayats). It is not an impossible task, but it depends on whom they choose,” he said.
Meanwhile, Yogeshwara flanked by another BJP legislator Arvind Bellad visited New Delhi on Tuesday, fuelling speculations that the two had tried to meet central leaders to complain against the chief minister’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. The two leaders might not have the stature to prompt a change in leadership but, according to analysts, their act to reach out to Delhi is being interpreted as a sign of growing dissent within the BJP in Karnataka.
