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Maharashtra likely to receive above-normal rainfall in Oct: IMD
During a virtual press conference addressed by Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of meteorology, IMD, the department issued its monthly probabilistic forecast for rainfall and temperature in October. Mohapatra also shared highlights of this year’s monsoon performance.
PUNE: According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the delayed withdrawal of the southwest monsoon over central India, including Maharashtra, is likely to bring above-normal rainfall to the state in October. However, the actual distribution will depend on the formation of weather systems, officials said.
During a virtual press conference addressed by Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of meteorology, IMD, the department issued its monthly probabilistic forecast for rainfall and temperature in October. Mohapatra also shared highlights of this year’s monsoon performance.
Mohapatra said that withdrawal of the southwest monsoon has stalled due to the development of a low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal. “There are no favourable conditions for further withdrawal of the monsoon for at least a week. Hence, central India and other parts of the country will continue to witness rainfall activity,” he noted.
“As per model indications, rainfall averaged over most parts of the country will be above-normal except in Jammu and Kashmir, some parts of northwest India, and isolated pockets of peninsular India,” Mohapatra said. As per the IMD’s colour-coded map, Maharashtra is in the blue zone indicating above-normal rainfall. Some areas of Konkan and Goa, central Maharashtra, and Vidarbha are even likely to record ‘excess’ rainfall.
However, a senior IMD scientist from Pune cautioned that the above-normal rainfall forecast does not imply consistent rain throughout October. “Variations are expected, depending on the development of weather systems. Even a single system can bring enough rain to surpass the average. We expect two systems to form in the next 15 days,” he said.
Regarding temperature trends, Mohapatra said that maximum temperatures are likely to remain below-normal across most regions while minimum temperatures may be normal to above-normal. As for the likelihood of a harsh winter, he said, “There are chances of La Niña conditions persisting for some time after October, which could bring below-normal temperatures. However, as per the IMD’s official definition, the core winter season is in January and February and it is too early to predict conditions for those months.”
Maha records 153 extreme weather events this monsoon
Maharashtra ranked among the worst-affected states in terms of extreme weather events this monsoon. From June to September 2025, the state recorded 153 extreme weather events whereas the nation recorded 1,528 such incidents. Maharashtra’s tally includes 135 cases of very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall, 18 incidents of lightning and thunderstorms, and scattered flash floods.
Maharashtra’s count has been higher than traditionally vulnerable Himalayan states such as Himachal Pradesh (141) and Jammu & Kashmir (139) though lower than Madhya Pradesh (290) and Uttar Pradesh (201).
Data from the IMD shows dense clusters of extreme rainfall across Konkan, western Maharashtra and Vidarbha. The monsoon brought urban flooding in Mumbai and Pune, swollen rivers in Konkan, and widespread crop damage in Marathwada. Experts warn that Maharashtra’s risks are overwhelmingly rainfall-driven, highlighting the need for improved flood management, urban drainage, and agricultural resilience.
Pune may witness light showers on Dussehra
After a lull, fresh weather systems are expected to revive rainfall in Maharashtra. A well-marked low-pressure area over Saurashtra and the Gulf of Kutch (September 30) and another developing over central Bay of Bengal (October 1) could bring light to moderate rainfall October 2 onwards.
S D Sanap, senior meteorologist, IMD Pune, said, “In Pune too, there are chances of light to very light showers between October 1 and 2. Hence on Dussehra, which falls on October 2, the city may experience brief rainfall.”
