E-Paper
Maharashtra to receive above-normal rainfall this year: IMD forecast
According to IMD, rainfall is expected to be above normal over Central India, which includes Maharashtra, as well as over South Peninsular India
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a subdivision-wise monsoon forecast indicating that all four meteorological subdivisions in Maharashtra —Konkan & Goa, Central Maharashtra, Marathwada, and Vidarbha — are likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the June to September monsoon season.
The updated long-range forecast (LRF) for the southwest monsoon was released by IMD from New Delhi on Tuesday, when M Ravichandran, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences; Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD; and RK Jenamani, head of the national weather forecasting centre, were present. This forecast builds on the initial seasonal outlook issued on April 15 and is based on a newly developed multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasting system.
According to IMD, rainfall is expected to be above normal over Central India, which includes Maharashtra, as well as over South Peninsular India. The monsoon core zone (MCZ), which covers most of the country’s rain-fed agricultural region, is also likely to experience above-normal rainfall.
The subdivision-wise forecast for Maharashtra indicates that Central Maharashtra and Marathwada are likely to receive the highest rainfall compared to the normal levels, with probabilities of 110% and 112% respectively. In the Konkan & Goa subdivision, the forecast suggests rainfall at 107% of the normal, while Vidarbha is expected to receive rainfall at 109% of the normal level. Overall, Maharashtra is likely to experience a wetter-than-usual monsoon this year.
Speaking about the early onset of the monsoon and the possibility of a monsoon break, Mohapatra said a combination of favourable atmospheric and oceanic conditions has led to the early arrival of the southwest monsoon in India this year.
“The monsoon is progressing well, and a new system forming over the Bay of Bengal is likely to strengthen and support further advancement,” said Mohapatra, adding, that the current rainfall activity is expected to persist for the next two to three days, after which there could be a reduction. However, given the dynamic nature of the monsoon, he said it is too early to comment on the likelihood or timing of any break in activity.
The forecast also suggests that Maharashtra is likely to experience above-normal rainfall in June. However, certain areas in Konkan, Marathwada, and Vidarbha may receive rainfall that is closer to the normal range.
On Tuesday, May 27, Pune experienced widespread moderate rainfall. According to official data from IMD, Shivajinagar recorded 15.7 mm of rainfall between 8:30 am and 5:30 pm. Wadgaonsheri recorded the highest rainfall in the city at 33.5 mm, while Chinchwad witnessed significant rainfall over the past 48 hours, logging 27.5 mm during the same period. Rainfall activity in the ghat sections has diminished slightly due to a reduction in moisture incursion from the Arabian Sea.
Explaining the current weather systems influencing the region, SD Sanap, senior meteorologist at IMD Pune, said a low-pressure area has formed over the Bay of Bengal, with a cyclonic circulation located over South Chhattisgarh and adjoining East Vidarbha. A trough is also present over north Konkan and the adjoining Arabian Sea. Under the influence of these systems, the coastal areas of Maharashtra are likely to experience widespread rainfall, and an orange alert has been issued for those regions. In Pune, the forecast indicates mainly cloudy skies over the next two days with chances of light rainfall. No weather alert has been issued for the city area. However, isolated moderate to heavy rainfall is likely in the ghat sections over the next 48 hours, and a yellow alert has been issued until May 29. There are no alerts in place for the district for May 30 and 31.
Pune’s temperature drops sharply
Following significant rainfall activity over the past two to three days, maximum temperatures in Pune have dropped sharply. According to IMD data, the maximum temperature in the city on Tuesday was recorded at 24.8 degrees Celsius, compared to 28.4 degrees Celsius on May 26. This was 11.5 degrees Celsius below the normal level. It is the first time since 2015 that such low maximum temperatures have been recorded in May. In Lohegaon, the maximum temperature stood at 26.1 degrees Celsius, which was 10.2 degrees below normal. The sudden dip in temperatures gave the city an unusual winter-like feel for this time of year.
