On 12 tours of SENA (South Africa, England, New Zealand and Australia) nations since 2011, only twice have India won the series opening Test. One of them culminated in a series win, during the 2018-19 tour of Australia. The other came in 2021, at Centurion where—much against an established narrative for visiting teams—India trounced South Africa by 113 runs. It was hailed as a promising prologue to a tour that was till then considered beyond India’s reach. That momentum however was frittered away as South Africa bounced back to win the next two Tests.
India had experienced something opposite earlier that year, when Australia looked firmly poised to clinch the home tour after dismissing them for 36 in the series opener at Adelaide. But in a rare show of resilience, India beat unprecedented odds in the form of multiple injuries and the absence of Virat Kohli to wrest that series 2-1. As invigorating as that Australia series win or the Centurion victory were, they are also basically happy aberrations if seen from the larger context of how tours tend to be influenced by outcomes of the opening Test. Which is why there can be no overlooking the stark reality of India in SENA countries since 2011: 10 defeats in 12 series, all 10 of them starting with either defeat or draw.
Few aspects of cricket are more difficult for a visiting team than setting the tone for the series in the first Test. No number of practice games readies you for the actual surface, the elements, the opponents or even the atmosphere. “I think South Africa is one of the most difficult countries to play Test cricket in,” said Shardul Thakur on Ravichandran Ashwin’s official YouTube podcast on Saturday. “Considering the pitch conditions, even if we play all over the country, this is one country where you can't expect what you will get from the pitch, so it's very important to go out there play the game and on the game day, you judge the conditions of the pitch, of the ground, and how it is and put yourself in a position to give your best according to that.”
{{/usCountry}}Few aspects of cricket are more difficult for a visiting team than setting the tone for the series in the first Test. No number of practice games readies you for the actual surface, the elements, the opponents or even the atmosphere. “I think South Africa is one of the most difficult countries to play Test cricket in,” said Shardul Thakur on Ravichandran Ashwin’s official YouTube podcast on Saturday. “Considering the pitch conditions, even if we play all over the country, this is one country where you can't expect what you will get from the pitch, so it's very important to go out there play the game and on the game day, you judge the conditions of the pitch, of the ground, and how it is and put yourself in a position to give your best according to that.”
{{/usCountry}}To ace both tests in tour openers can be a tall ask, especially in southern hemisphere countries like South Africa, New Zealand and Australia where summers aren’t exactly like what you get in India. It can get seriously hot, but often without the sapping humidity. And since the watering is more even, pitches can get seriously quick with time, like in Perth, Brisbane, Centurion or Cape Town. Pakistan got a taste of that when Australia pummelled them by 360 runs in their tour opener at Perth last week despite an encouraging warm-up game where Shan Masood scored an unbeaten 201.
Only in 13 out of 55 series at home since their readmission have South Africa lost the tour openers, five of them coming in Johannesburg, three in Durban and two in Centurion. But so far apart have been those two defeats—the first one coming against Australia in 2014—that South Africa are willing to bet on Centurion once again, perhaps hoping India won’t repeat their 2021 magic while counting on two massive statistics: South Africa have the best W/L ratio in Centurion (22 wins, 3 losses and 3 defeats) and India average only 25.9 per wicket, the second lowest (after Durban) among all current South African Test venues.
That apart, South Africa will also be keen on reminding India that they are yet to win a series there. “We certainly want to hold on to that proud record and make sure that that doesn’t happen,” said South Africa coach Shukri Conrad on Saturday. “It's two Tests, so it's a high pressured one. You go 1-0 down and you can't win the series. You go 1-0 up, you can't lose.” Two-Test series are never long enough to judge a visiting team but officially, it’s the minimum requirement under the ICC World Test Championship and often the maximum for a series beyond the Big Three of India, Australia and England. Less than ideal it may look right now but India have to make do with it and conjure a winning start to at least increase their odds of essaying a more favourable series outcome this time.