The Trump administration has deferred the roll-out of the Lindsay Graham Act which seeks to impose a 100% tariff on countries buying Russian oil. The decision is not born of altruism toward other countries buying Russian oil. The waiver was announced after the US itself made a deal to buy Russian diesel.
The ongoing war in West Asia, weeks before the US mid-term elections, has left the Trump administration looking for alternative sources of diesel supplies. For countries that still
The Trump administration has deferred the roll-out of the Lindsay Graham Act which seeks to impose a 100% tariff on countries buying Russian oil. The decision is not born of altruism toward other countries buying Russian oil. The waiver was announced after the US itself made a deal to buy Russian diesel.
The ongoing war in West Asia, weeks before the US mid-term elections, has left the Trump administration looking for alternative sources of diesel supplies. For countries that still buy Russian oil, India included, the tariffs might return after a 60-day review, US secretary of State Marco Rubio said while answering questions in Washington.
What should one make of the US’s latest decision?
Is this a proverbial Trump TACO — threatening drastic action only to back down at the last moment? It needs to be underlined that unlike the last time when Trump imposed an additional and unfair 25% tariff only on India for buying Russian oil, a blanket penalty for all buyers will also hurt countries like China, which might decide to retaliate in other ways.
Is the Trump administration just buying time before the mid-term elections — which will be over in 60 days — before weaponising this law? This would be extremely politically convenient for the US and Trump.
One could build more hypotheticals. However, that is not the point.
What matters really is that the US’s bilateral dealings with countries, including some of its oldest and deepest allies, are no longer driven by mutual interest or even a larger political objective anymore. In these cases, the US’s conduct is driven by what suits its own interests at the moment. Whether or not other countries can persuade the US to act otherwise depends on the leverage they possess.
The key takeaways for India are simple. India should utilise the window to build up its oil reserves as much as possible. If Trump decides to escalate in West Asia after the mid-term elections, the energy market will become even more turbulent. India should hope for the best (Trump extending the waiver) and prepare for the worst (facing American punitive tariffs or a complete shutdown of Russian supplies). The Indo-US alliance is now as volatile as the energy markets, and even the end of the war might not normalise it.
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