The Congress party has established a lead over the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Himachal Pradesh assembly elections with around 80% of votes counted in the hill state until 12.30pm.
Congress is leading in Himachal and has reportedly won 40 seats, compared to the BJP’s 25.
Also Read: Himachal Pradesh Election Results 2022 Live: Cong leads cross halfway, BJP out?
However, an HT analysis of the election commission of India (ECI) data shows that it is too early to call the elections right now. Here is why.
Final results for only one assembly constituency (AC) have been declared so far, and leads are available for the remaining 67 constituencies.
In 19 out of these 67 constituencies, the victory margins are less than 5% of the total votes counted so far. In eight constituencies, the victory margins are less than 2% of the total votes counted. Only 29 constituencies have victory margins of more than 10% of the total votes counted.
A similar pattern can be seen if one takes the absolute margin of votes. 14.3% of constituencies are currently being decided by a margin of fewer than 500 votes and 6.1% by a margin of 500-1,000 votes. To be sure, vote shares are a more accurate way to look at close contests.
{{/usCountry}}A similar pattern can be seen if one takes the absolute margin of votes. 14.3% of constituencies are currently being decided by a margin of fewer than 500 votes and 6.1% by a margin of 500-1,000 votes. To be sure, vote shares are a more accurate way to look at close contests.
{{/usCountry}}Which party is in bigger danger of losing in small-margin seats?
Until 12.30pm, the BJP appears to have a higher share of seats with close contests. 14.3% and 21.4% of its leads are with a margin of less than 2% and 2%-5% of polled votes, respectively. While for Congress, these numbers are 10.8% and 13.5%, respectively.