The ongoing El Niño event is expected to last at least until April 2024 contributing to further spike in global temperatures on land and the ocean, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned. The result could be a record warm year in 2024, close on the heels of 2023, which is set to be the warmest ever. For India, the impact could be a warm winter, more fog, and summer heat waves, an expert said.
“E Niño impacts on global temperature typically play out in the year after its development, in this case in 2024. But as a result of record high land and sea-surface temperatures since June, the year 2023 is now on track to be the warmest year on record. Next year may be even warmer. This is clearly and unequivocally due to the contribution of the increasing concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases from human activities,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
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As of mid-October 2023, sea surface temperatures and other atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the central-eastern tropical Pacific are consistent with El Niño, the warm phase of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the agency said. The El Niño developed rapidly during July-August, and reached moderate strength by September, 2023 and is likely to peak as a ‘strong; event in November - January 2024. There is a 90% likelihood it will persist throughout the upcoming northern hemisphere winter/southern hemisphere summer, WMO added. Based on historical patterns and current long-range predictions, it is expected that El Nino will gradually diminish around April.
El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and typically lasts nine to 12 months. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. HT reported on November 2 that ocean and land temperatures continued their record-breaking spree in October. Sea surface and land temperatures have been at record highs for seven and five months respectively, according to data maintained by University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer. October was the warmest on record, Europe’s climate monitor said Wednesday.
{{/usCountry}}El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and typically lasts nine to 12 months. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. HT reported on November 2 that ocean and land temperatures continued their record-breaking spree in October. Sea surface and land temperatures have been at record highs for seven and five months respectively, according to data maintained by University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer. October was the warmest on record, Europe’s climate monitor said Wednesday.
{{/usCountry}}The trend started in April, a result of an intensifying El Nino in addition to global warming. Copernicus Marine’s data said that as of 20 October, sea surface temperature anomalies reached peaks of +3 to +5°C at various locations in the Mediterranean Sea. September was the warmest September in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA’s) 174-year global climate record, NOAA said in a statement on October 13. “Extreme events such as heatwaves, drought, wildfires, heavy rain and floods will be enhanced in some regions, with major impacts. That is why WMO is committed to the Early Warnings for All initiative to save lives and minimize economic losses,” said Taalas.
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The previous warmest year on record was 2016 due to a “double whammy” of an exceptionally strong El Niño and climate change.
Since May 2023, monthly average sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have warmed significantly, rising from about 0.5 °C above average in May, 2023) to around 1.5 °C above average in September, 2023. These estimates are relative to the 1991-2020 baseline period, using the latest version of the Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) dataset, WMO said.
The most recent forecasts and expert assessment suggest a high likelihood of continued warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific for at least the next four overlapping three-month seasons: November-January, December-February, January-March, and February-April 2024.
“This was expected. The present one --a major El Nino event will continue till at least April 2024. The impacts for India could be a relatively warm winter, more western disturbances that means more fog days between December and February, more heat waves in pre-monsoon season (at least in April and May). We are lucky that the 2023 monsoon was finally near normal, even though large regions in India experienced deficient rains. We should not worry much about the 2024 monsoon due to the El Nino event, as it will be a recovery phase,” said M Rajeevan, climate scientist and former secretary, ministry of earth sciences.
Also Read: El Nino stays strong, experts fear impact on winter, 2024
It is important to note that El Niño is not the only factor that drives global and regional climate patterns, and that the magnitudes of El Niño indicators do not directly correspond to the magnitudes of their effects, WMO has clarified.
In addition, the Copernicus Climate Change Service on Wednesday said that October 2023 was the warmest October on record globally, with an average surface air temperature of 15.30°C. October marked the sixth consecutive month that Antarctic sea ice extent remained at record low levels for the time of year, and Arctic sea ice extent reached its 7th lowest value for October.