Heavy and widespread rain in peninsular and northeast India will persist till October, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday. Northwest India will continue to remain dry and Rajasthan is likely to experience dry weather but weather models are not showing monsoon withdrawal commencement from northwest India as yet.
Due to heavy rain over south India and parts of northeast India rain deficiency of 30% in the week ending September 9 was not only compensated last week but also recorded an excess of 7% this week according to the weekly weather report. “A change in weather patterns which resulted in above normal rain in the past week from -30% we reached 7% excess as far as weekly rain is considered. This change was possible because of a low-pressure system that formed over Andhra Pradesh coast, a cyclonic circulation over west coast of India which brough rainfall throughout south peninsular India. Monsoon trough shifted to foothills during the end of the week causing heavy to extremely heavy rain in parts of northeast India,” said Soma Senroy, scientist at the National Weather Forecasting Centre of IMD.
A fresh low-pressure area is likely to develop over northwest Bay of Bengal around September 20 which will bring heavy and widespread rains to east, northeast and peninsular India till end of September while northwest India is likely to record large deficiency. Between September 18 and 24 above normal rain is likely over west peninsular coast as westerlies strengthen due to development of the low-pressure area.
{{/usCountry}}A fresh low-pressure area is likely to develop over northwest Bay of Bengal around September 20 which will bring heavy and widespread rains to east, northeast and peninsular India till end of September while northwest India is likely to record large deficiency. Between September 18 and 24 above normal rain is likely over west peninsular coast as westerlies strengthen due to development of the low-pressure area.
{{/usCountry}}Widespread and very heavy rain is likely over Kerala, Karnataka and Konkan and Goa from September 19 to 22. Extremely heavy rain is also very likely over Coastal Karnataka during September 19 to 20; over north Kerala and ghat sections of South Interior Karnataka on September 19 and 20; over south Konkan and Goa on September 21 and 22.
Localized flooding of roads; water logging in low lying areas; mudslides; damage to horticulture and standing crops in some areas due to inundation and riverine flooding in some river catchments is likely in these areas, IMD said on Saturday. Extremely heavy rain is also likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on September 22 and 23.
There is a 12.5% deficiency in rain over the country in September; 53.9% deficiency over northwest India; 32.4% deficiency over central India; 4.4% deficiency over east and northeast India and 77.4% excess rain over peninsular India. In the monsoon season since June 1 there is 6.6% excess rain over the country; 15.5% deficiency over northwest India; 13.5% excess over central India; 1.5% excess over east and northeast India and 28.4% excess over south peninsula.
“The circulation patterns are not suggesting withdrawal of monsoon yet. We are not seeing significant reduction in moisture. Westerly winds will strengthen next week due to development of low-pressure area,” explained K Sathi Devi, head, national weather forecasting centre