The upcoming Bihar assembly elections might see a close contest with just a percentage point separating the vote shares of the two major alliances, an internal survey commissioned by the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) shows.
The NDA survey –– reviewed by HT –– gives the edge to the ruling coalition, which it predicts might marginally better its 2020 showing of 125 seats by getting around 130 seats out of 243. It also notes high approval of 65% for chief minister Nitish Kumar and a surge in support for strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor, whose Jan Suraaj Party is seen as bagging almost 9% of the vote.
HT reported on Monday that the Congress’s initial ground reports also suggest that CM Kumar faces little anti-incumbency even as he has spent more than 18 years in the top post.
To be sure, internal surveys have a tendency to favour the outfit commissioning them. Moreover, such surveys and polls have got the verdict wrong in earlier elections, especially in states with diverse populations, castes and communities. They’re a better yardstick of trends and electoral mood, and not exact seat and vote shares.
“People can see the village-centric development under Nitish Kumar,’’ said the party’s legislative council member, Neeraj Kumar. “While Tejashwi is promising a government job in every family, which is not something that a state government can deliver or is enforceable, our government is ensuring Jeevika Didi scheme, that every woman does get ₹10,000. We have consistently empowered women.”
{{/usCountry}}“People can see the village-centric development under Nitish Kumar,’’ said the party’s legislative council member, Neeraj Kumar. “While Tejashwi is promising a government job in every family, which is not something that a state government can deliver or is enforceable, our government is ensuring Jeevika Didi scheme, that every woman does get ₹10,000. We have consistently empowered women.”
{{/usCountry}}The 74-year-old chief minister was attacked by Opposition leaders for corruption and lack of jobs and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav has also underlined Kumar’s health condition. Kishor has repeatedly attacked Bihar cabinet members over corruption allegations. But only 31% of those people surveyed by the NDA felt that Kumar’s tenure had been a dismal one.
The NDA survey gave the Opposition between 102 and 107 seats, and between two and three seats for others, a category that included Jan Suraaj. This could be a repeat of the performance of Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party in 2020, when the party won just one seat but damaged the JD(U) in scores of constituencies.
“We are ahead but Prashant Kishor is limited to about 6-7%,’’ said another former poll strategist turned Congress ticket aspirant, Shashant Shekhar. “He is trying to be too smart and will try to place candidates who will eat into our vote share. But the people will see through him and he won’t do well,” he added.
To be sure, both camps point out that the candidate selection could be “make or break” and the final assessment will be more accurate after all candidates are announced in every constituency.
In the 2020 elections, the NDA secured 125 seats while the Opposition’s Grand Alliance got 110. But the vote share difference between the two coalitions was just 0.03%.