Number Theory: What does data tell us about China’s declining population?

Data suggests that unlike in 1960 and 1961, the decline in population this time is due to larger demographic trends

The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) on Wednesday announced that the country’s population fell for the second year in a row in 2023 to reach 1,409.7 million (or 1.41 billion) This is a decline of 2.08 million compared to 2022. If projections made by the UN in 2022 are believed, the country is also likely to have lost its title as the “most populous country” to India during the course of the year. Although China has seen two

China’s population will peak in 2029 at 1.44 billion before beginning a period of “unstoppable” decline, a government report said. (AP File Photo)

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  A clear decline in population…

  Data from NBS shows that China’s population declined for two consecutive years in 2022 and 2023. The 2.08 million decline in 2023 is, however, bigger than the 0.85 million decline in 2022. The country last saw its population decline in two consecutive years in 1960 and 1961, the result of the famines caused by Mao Zedong’s campaign to forcefully industrialise the economy.
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  … that is different from the last one.

  Since the dip in population seen in 1960 and 1961 was due to high mortality in a famine unleashed by the “Great Leap Forward” , population growth quickly bounced back after the famine ended. In fact, the decadal population growth of China hit its peak during the 1960-69 period. However, this rate of growth has seen a consistent decline since. From 2.22% during 1960-69, it came down to 0.56 during 2010-19. This number turned negative in the 2020-2023 period. To be sure, the population figures from 2021 onwards are based on an annual national sample survey on population changes. China conducted its last decadal census in 2020.
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  A falling birth rate …

  China’s infamous one child policy, which was implemented in the 1980s to rein in the country’s population, has had a significant role to play in the decline of its population. While China’s death rate has remained stable since the 1980s, its birth rate has been largely on a steady decline since then. The country’s birth rate has fallen from around 20 per 1000 population in early 1980s to just 6.39 in 2023. To be sure, China’s death rate also increased unusually in 2023. This is likely because the country saw a surge in Covid-19 infections from December 2022 to February 2023 after it removed Covid-19 restrictions. In light of its low population growth, the Chinese government has changed its stance in recent years. It scrapped the one child policy by first allowing couples to have up to two children in 2016. It relaxed rules further in 2021 to allow up to three children per couple, as well as announcing various financial incentives to promote childbirth. However, the continuously declining population suggests that these measures haven’t yet produced the desired results.
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  … saw China lose the mantle of “most populous” to India

  According to the World Population Prospects (WPP) report of the UN released in 2022, China is also expected to have lost the title of being the most populous country in the world to India in 2023. UN estimates show that India accounted for 17.76% of the world’s population in 2023, while China accounted for 17.72%. This number for China will decrease to 13.5% by 2050 when India’s share will still be 17.2%. To be sure, despite overtaking China as the most populous nation, India’s population growth rate is also softening, albeit at a slower pace. According to the UN’s 2022 report, India’s CAGR of population has decreased from 2.24% in 1950-1959 to 0.99% in 2014-2023. The country’s population is estimated to start declining in 2064.
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  China has a rapidly ageing population

  “With housing, health care, and education all increasing at far greater rates than disposable income, it is understandable that many young Chinese would feel unable to support a family,” said an analysis piece published by the Asia Society in 2023. However, as young people choose to marry late and avoid childbirths, China’s population is rapidly ageing. Unlike the country’s total population, China’s population over the age of 65 years continued to grow in 2022 (4.6%) and 2023 (3.3%). On the other hand, the country’s working-age population (approximated here by the 15-65 age group) has been decreasing every year from 2014. The 15-65 population was not available for 2023 immediately because the age-breakup of population released Wednesday was different from those used earlier. The demographic conundrum, partly a result of its aggressive population control policies, that China is facing today serves as a cautionary tale for those advocating population control as a cure-all for India. With India now being the most populous country in the world, it is imperative to delicately navigate the complexities to avert the pitfalls of both counterproductive population control measures as well not doing enough to exploit the demographic dividend which exists today. The abysmal state of learning outcomes among India's young students as seen in the Beyond Basics ASER report (released January 17) is a warning of a crisis on the latter front.