Skymet forecasts normal monsoon at 103% of LPA this year

Skymet expects sufficiently good rains over western and southern India. The core monsoon rain-fed zone of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will receive adequate rainfall.

Monsoon this year is expected to be ‘normal’ at 103% (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of the long period average (LPA), private weather monitoring agency Skymet has forecast. The LPA for monsoon (June-September) is 868.6mm, while the normal range is 96-104%.

Citizens commute amid heavy rain in Pune. (PTI Photo)

The neutral conditions of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are likely from April to August, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center had said last month. The El Niño weather pattern that began in May 2023 and ended in May 2024 caused extreme heat in several parts of the world. However, even during the subsequent weak La Niña phase, which emerged in December and typically brings cooler temperatures, many countries including India logged record temperatures.

“La Nina this season was weak and brief, too. The vital signs of La Nina have started fading now. The occurrence of El Nino, which normally corrupts the monsoon, is ruled out. ENSO-neutral is likely to be the most dominant category during the Indian Summer Monsoon. The remnants of La Nina and ENSO-neutral together will shield the monsoon from any egregious outcome,” said Jatin Singh, managing director of Skymet.

In terms of geographical distribution, Skymet expects sufficiently good rains over western and southern India. The core monsoon rain-fed zone of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will receive adequate rainfall. Excess rainfall is likely all along the Western Ghats, more so over Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Goa. The northeast region and hilly states of north India are likely to observe less than normal rainfall, during the season.

La Nina refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, such as winds, pressure and rainfall. El Nino is just the opposite, representing the warm phase of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.

In India, an El Nino is associated with a harsher summer and weaker monsoon. La Nina, meanwhile, is associated with a strong monsoon, above average rains and colder winters.

However, naturally occurring climate events such as La Nina and El Nino are taking place in the broader context of the human-induced climate crisis, which is dialling up global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather and climate, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns, the World Meteorological Organization has warned.