Why Axis My India won't release Bengal exit poll results: ‘Respondent hesitancy, high refusal'

The pollster said the high degree of hesitancy and refusal rate "exceeded historical norms and introduces a high degree of non-response bias".

A day after Axis My India released exit poll projections for four assemblies, its founder Pradeep Gupta announced that the projections will not be released for Bengal this time.

A CAPF official stands guard while voters wait to cast their votes at a polling station during the second phase of the West Bengal Assembly elections 2026, in Purba Bardhaman. (@CEOWestBengal)

The reason, as per Gupta, emanates from reasons affecting the methodology of sampling which leave the survey incomplete.

All the pollsters, barring one, have shown a lead for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Bengal, ending chief minister Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress's 15-year reign.

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Pollsters, including Matrize, P-Marq, Poll Diary, JVC and Janmat Polls have shown TMC at an advantage. Peoples Pulse is the only pollster to have shown Mamata at an advantage.

Bengal is a tough state to crack for pollsters and a majority of exit poll projections in the 2021 assembly poll proved wrong.

Why Axis My India is not releasing Bengal exit poll

The reason behind not releasing the exit polls for Bengal stemmed from the fact that a majority of the voters, 70 per cent to be precise, refuse to participate in the exit poll survey, a statement released on behalf of Axis My India founder Pradeep Gupta said.

The exit poll projections are based on a small sample size collated from responses of voters outside voting booths across demographic groups and geographical locations to calculate trends ahead of the release of official results.

The pollster said the high degree of hesitancy and refusal rate "exceeded historical norms and introduces a high degree of non-response bias".

It said that such constraints hurt from a methodological view and the precision of the survey become skewed due to the silence of the participants.

The statement said that a team of 80 surveyors travelled across 294 constituencies in Bengal and covered a total of 13,250 respondents.

In an interview with NDTV, Gupta cited an “environment of fear” and said: "We saw that when 70 to 80 per cent of people are not ready to talk to us. So the methodology of our sampling process is not working properly. We have therefore decided that it would be better in such a situation that the poll is not announced".

What exit poll data said for Bengal?

People's Pulse projected a TMC tide in Bengal giving a fourth term for Mamata. The pollster gave 177 to 187 seats to TMC, while the BJP expected to win between 95 and 110 seats.

Matrize and P-Marq suggested BJP winning the Bengal ending Mamata's 15-year reign. The Poll Diary survey suggested the BJP winning 142-171 seats, while the TMC trailing with 99-127 seats.

The JVC exit poll predicted a tight contest between the two camps, with the TMC projected to get 131-152 seats, while the BJP getting 138-159 seats.