The countdown begins: What the coming dip in global population means for us all

Nations around the world are facing population declines. The projected global dip is a first for humans, in recorded history. Can we do more to prepare?

While India worries about its growing population, the world is looking at the entirely opposite problem: This is the century in which the planet will empty out. Countries around the world are seeing a slow, sustained collapse of fertility. Even in places where population is growing—India, North Africa—a tipping point is approaching.  

And it’s coming earlier than expected. The United Nations’ 2022 Revision of World Population Prospects estimates that Earth’s population will peak at about 10.4 billion people in the 2080s

The countdown begins: What the coming dip in global population means for us all

The countdown begins: What the coming dip in global population means for us all

The countdown begins: What the coming dip in global population means for us all

The countdown begins: What the coming dip in global population means for us all

The countdown begins: What the coming dip in global population means for us all

The countdown begins: What the coming dip in global population means for us all

The countdown begins: What the coming dip in global population means for us all

The countdown begins: What the coming dip in global population means for us all

The countdown begins: What the coming dip in global population means for us all

The countdown begins: What the coming dip in global population means for us all

The countdown begins: What the coming dip in global population means for us all

The countdown begins: What the coming dip in global population means for us all

(All population and fertility rate data from 2021, via data.un.org/en/index.html)

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RECEDING HEIRLINES

What coming generations will inherit

2.8 billion: Earth’s population in 1955. Today, that is the population of India and China alone.

9.7 billion: Earth’s population by 2050, according to estimates by the United Nations Population Division.

134 million: The number of babies born worldwide in 2023. That’s an average of 367,000 newborns each day. While this may sound like a lot, it is actually the lowest number of newborns since 2001.

61 million: The number of deaths in 2023. This means global population rose by 73 million people last year, a net increase of 0.91%.

20.3 years: The median age of a human in 1970. It means that half the population was older and half was younger at the time.

30 years: The median age of a human on Earth right now. Fewer births and a longer life expectancy means this is the oldest median age in history.

2080s: The UN’s projections of when human birth-death numbers will even out, making global population peak. There will be an estimated 10.4 billion people on Earth, with no decline until 2100.

2050s: The projection from some demographers on when population will peak, based on data from nations showing early declines. They estimate that human population will stand at 9.5 billion, and drop sharply thereafter.

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Why is a population’s replacement rate set at 2.1?

The figure represents the number of children a woman is likely to have in her lifetime. Mathematically, a fertility rate of 2 means there are as many kids as parents, that family sizes remain the same and, barring migration, there is no growth or reduction in the population from generation to generation. The 0.1 is added to offset infant mortality

But with sex-selective abortion prevalent in many cultures, not all girl children survive or make it to their fertility age. So when demographers calculate figures for the planet as a whole, they use 2.2, to account for the gender imbalance. The fertility rate for humanity is already at 2.2. For the very first time in human history, we are not reproducing ourselves.