Donald Trump assassination bid: Clamour for gun control grows
The assassination attempt on Trump could be the tipping point for the gun control debate. In some states, there is a growing chorus for gun control measures
The attempted assassination of former President and Republican presidential nominee for the upcoming US elections on November 5, Donald Trump, occurred on the eve of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
This incident inadvertently ushered in several advantages for the GOP. Firstly, it significantly impacted the immediate political strategy of the Democrats. President Joe Biden, who had relied on aggressive rhetoric as a campaign strategy following the post-June 27 presidential debate debacle, was forced to scale back his campaign and adopt a more subdued approach.
Secondly, the Trump campaign received a boost from the narrative of his survival amid bloodshed, which was amplified by images of Trump’s triumphant fist pump against the backdrop of the American flag.
While it remains uncertain whether these unintended consequences will sustain momentum for the Republicans until November, they have certainly influenced a more cautious political approach from the Democrats, who now find themselves scrambling for viable options.
The one political upper hand that the Democrats could have against the Republicans, especially Donald Trump, is on the issue of gun control. The use of an AR-15-style rifle by the attacker against Trump – one of the most ubiquitous weapons in American life – has not just blunted the surprise element but also recentred the debate about the need to bear arms, especially long-range, automatic weapons.
Ironically, AR-15-style rifles have been central to America’s gun culture and public consciousness. An estimated 25 million civilians in the US own AR-15s, making it the primary firearm associated with mass shootings in the country. These weapons are readily available across all 50 states, with only minor restrictions in California.
The ease of access to firearms in the US, coupled with an attack on a former and potential future president, could reignite the debate over gun control in an election year. Generally, Republicans tend to support gun ownership rights, while Democrats oppose them. This political divide within the US is heavily influenced by the financial, influential, and political clout of gun lobbies such as the National Rifle Association (NRA), which holds significant sway.
There are two significant factors contributing to the persistence of gun rights in the US. The first is rooted in the complex historical fabric of the country, where issues of race, slavery, and civil war have intertwined to shape a national psyche deeply imbued with notions of domination, control, and the freedom and rights of citizens.
The second factor pertains to the economic aspect, particularly the influence of the military-industrial complex driven by the substantial economic activity generated through the manufacturing and sale of firearms. This economic dimension is bolstered by lobbying efforts that include representatives in Congress who leverage their positions to oppose restrictions on gun ownership.
Gun ownership in the US is often defended on the grounds of the Second Amendment of the American Constitution, which ensures "the right of the people to keep and bear arms." Historically, it has been one of the most divisive federal issues, with even some Democrats supsporting it.
In the past, some Democratic presidents have taken steps to curb the ownership and usage of guns in America, but no government has attempted a total ban. In 1994, President Bill Clinton enacted the Public Safety and Recreational Firearms Use Protection Act, often referred to as the Federal Assault Weapons Ban, as part of the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994.
The Democrats, led by Biden, have some history in seeking gun control. A school massacre in Uvalde, Texas in May 2022 prompted the Biden administration to come out strongly against the gun lobby in the US. In 2022, President Biden signed the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act into law. The former banned specific types of assault weapons and made the transferability of weapons difficult, while the latter made background checks more important.
What pitted the Biden administration against the gun lobby was the clause holding the gun industry accountable through various measures.
It is a little over halfway through the year, and the US has witnessed over 300 mass shootings. The assassination attempt on Trump could have been the tipping point for an effective gun control debate. In some states, including Georgia, there is a growing chorus for stiffer gun control measures once again.
However, in a heated election cycle and with a subdued Democratic campaign, the debate on gun control is likely to get lost in the larger culture war between the Democrats and the Republicans. This is especially true given Trump’s views on guns and shootings. In 2016, he even casually talked about shooting someone: “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters.”
The NRA has endorsed Trump thrice, in 2016, 2020 and 2024. For the upcoming elections, Trump has already accepted the endorsement by the gun lobby and has promised to reverse Biden’s gun control measures, should he win. This is unlikely to change even in the face of national introspection on gun control in the aftermath of his attempted assassination.
Harsh V Pant is vice president for studies, Observer Research Foundation (ORF), and Vivek Mishra is fellow, ORF’s Strategic Studies Programme. The views expressed are personal
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