Trump’s second U-turn in 24 hours? US extends Russian oil waiver after letting it lapse

President Trump appears to reverse course again as the US quietly extends a 30‑day waiver allowing trade in seaborne Russian oil after briefly letting the exemption lapse. The move aims to free tankers stranded at sea, steady global crude supplies and blunt a potential price shock after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz heightened market fears. Washington says the temporary license will help vulnerable countries access fuel and limit China’s ability to stockpile discounted Russian crude, while critics call it a policy of convenience that undercuts sanctions pressure on Moscow. The extension comes amid broader regional volatility, including reports of a postponed US strike on Iran and fresh backchannel diplomacy via Pakistan. India has emerged as an immediate buyer, adding millions of barrels since the waiver first took effect in March. We break down what the extension means for markets, geopolitics and US credibility, and examine whether this amounts to a tactical pause or a strategic shift.