Have foreign tourists really avoided America this year?

Our analysis of whether the country is losing its international appeal among holidaymakers

AMERICA HAS rarely been out of the headlines this year. The world has watched as the Trump administration has slashed government departments, shaken alliances, increased deportations and sent the National Guard onto city streets. For the tourism industry, not all publicity is good publicity: our analysis of available data suggests that the number of international visitors has dropped sharply from a year ago.

Is there a Trump effect on tourism? (AFP)

At first the picture was muddied. Early reports suggested a sharp fall in March, coinciding with Donald Trump’s tariff threats. But later analysis showed a spike in April. The real cause was the timing of Easter, which was in late March last year but mid-April this year. Data from 20 major airports confirm this pattern (see chart 1).

Chart 1

With most of the summer season now visible, the trend is harder to miss. Using data from America’s International Trade Administration, a government agency, The Economist finds that foreign arrivals at American airports are down by 3.8% compared with 2024, or 1.3m fewer people. The slump was steepest between May and July, when arrivals fell by 5.5% year on year. That bucked the global trend as tourism finally recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

The steepest drop came in arrivals from Canada (see chart 2). Canadian entries at American airports are down by 7.4% so far this year, and by 13.2% over the summer. Car crossings have dropped by more: in June they were a third lower than last year. Many Canadians are boycotting American goods and shunning trips south after Mr Trump’s tariffs on Canadian exports and his threats to annex the country.

Not all of America’s tourism hotspots are equally affected. Over the summer Boston Logan and Chicago O’Hare airports each saw a roughly 8% fall in international arrivals compared with the same period last year; in New York’s JFK they dropped by 7%. But Florida resort destinations such as Orlando and Tampa drew more tourists from overseas this summer than last. That has helped stabilise national numbers as of mid-August.

Travel and tourism make up around 3% of America’s GDP. The World Travel and Tourism Council, an international forum, warns that the loss of foreign tourists could cost America $12.5bn this year. But so far hotel operators have reported that higher spending by well-off domestic travelers has softened the blow.

These travellers, however, are also flying abroad in greater numbers than last year, as international travel recovers from the pandemic. Departures of American citizens on international flights are up by 2.9% on last year, and by 2.5% between May and July. In 2024 some 22% more Americans flew abroad than foreigners came in; this year so far the gap has widened to 27%. For a president obsessed with trade imbalances, more Americans spending money overseas, while fewer foreigners spend in America, should be troubling.

Chart 2

Have-foreign-tourists-really-avoided-America-this-