Four days before the first phase of polling in Bihar, two surveys on Thursday predicted a comfortable win for the Nitish Kumar-led Grand Alliance, while another one projected a slender lead for the BJP alliance.
The CNN IBN/IBN7-Axis survey said the alliance of the JD-U, RJD and the Congress was expected to win 137 of the 243 seats in the Bihar assembly with a 46% vote share.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA coalition was expected to win 95 seats, garnering a 38% vote share, said the survey.
Another pre-poll survey by ITG-Cicero shown on India Today TV gave the Grand Alliance 122 seats, required for a simple majority, with NDA following as close second with 111 seats.
The remaining 10 seats are left for the other parties.
The survey gave the JD(U), RJD and Congress alliance a total vote percentage of 41%, with the NDA alliance followed closely with 39% voteshare and others getting 20% voteshare.
A party or coalition must get 122 seats to secure a majority in the state assembly.
The India TV-CVoter pre-poll survey projected the BJP-led NDA to win 119 seats, just three short of a majority.
The BJP-led NDA was projected to win 119 seats, three short of the magic mark of 122 in the Bihar assembly,with a 43% vote share.
The survey gave the Grand Alliance 116 seats with a 41% vote share. Eight seats are expected to go to ‘others’.
In 2010, the then BJP-JD(U)alliance won 206 seats, while Lalu Prasad’s RJD-led alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan could win only 25 seats. In the Lok Sabha election of 2014, the NDA comprising BJP, Paswan’s LJP and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP won in 174 assembly segments. The Lalu-Nitish combine could win only in 51 assembly segments in the face of a Narendra Modi wave.
The CNN IBN- Axis survey, which also gave party-wise figures said the BJP was expected to win 82 seats with an error margin of five seats while its ally the LJP of Ram Vilas Paswan may get only two seats. Former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM is expected to bag eight seats and the RLSP of Upendra Kushwaha three seats
The JD-U led by incumbent chief minister Nitish Kumar was expected to win 69 seats with an error margin of 5 seats.
Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal may win 48 seats with an error margin of two seats. The Congress was set to win 20 seats, according to the survey, with an error margin of one seat.
The survey, conducted between September 3 and October 4, involved over 24,000 respondents. It covered all the 38 districts and all 243 constituencies of Bihar.
Bihar Assembly polls will be held in five phases on October 12, 16, 28, November 1 and 5. Counting of votes will take place on November 8.