Oil edged lower as the US and Iran stuck to familiar rhetoric in their conflict, and a technical gauge pointed to overbought conditions.
Brent fell below $116 a barrel after surging last week to a six-month high, while West Texas Intermediate was near $102. President Donald Trump told Fox News it’s “getting to be decision time” on whether he will make a deal with Tehran or “finish it off.” Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said “they will not attempt” an attack if rationality existed, referring to the US.
On the technical front, Brent’s 14-day relative-strength index — a measure of the pace and magnitude of price movements — topped 74 on Friday. That’s above the level of 70 that some traders see as signaling a pullback.
Brent has still surged about 90% this year as the war in the Middle East disrupted flows and drew in Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have been targeting Saudi Arabia. Investors are braced for several major events that could move markets, with Israeli elections due on Tuesday, followed by the US midterms in early November. Between the two, the Federal Reserve sets monetary policy.
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In recent days, Washington ordered a wider evacuation of diplomatic personnel from across the Middle East, while President Trump has hinted his forces could resume strikes after the US midterms on Nov. 3. For its part, Iran is preparing to retaliate, including against Israel and the United Arab Emirates, according to a person familiar with the Islamic Republic’s thinking.
{{/usCountry}}In recent days, Washington ordered a wider evacuation of diplomatic personnel from across the Middle East, while President Trump has hinted his forces could resume strikes after the US midterms on Nov. 3. For its part, Iran is preparing to retaliate, including against Israel and the United Arab Emirates, according to a person familiar with the Islamic Republic’s thinking.
{{/usCountry}}At the weekend, there was further fighting between Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, ratcheting up risks to energy flows. The rebel group claimed that they targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh in response to Saturday’s Saudi attacks in Sanaa and other areas in Yemen.
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“The rise in fighting in the region, combined with the worries that escalation is around the corner, mean that oil markets need to price in the risk of oil and refined-product inventory depletion,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note. “We see Brent oil futures needing to rise as high as $150 a barrel to compel uncontrolled demand destruction, where high prices force lower demand, in emerging Asian economies.”
At present, crude shipments from the Middle East have recovered to near prewar levels, including through the Strait of Hormuz, despite Iranian attacks on vessels. The narrow waterway links the Persian Gulf to global markets, and has been at the center of the conflict.
“The market is pricing in some risk of escalation after the US midterm elections, when Washington may feel less constrained by the immediate political cost of higher oil prices,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy AS. “That risk could keep prices elevated even if flows improve.”
The US and Israel began the war with an attack in late February, with the stated aim of ending Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — who has been endorsed in the election by Trump — said in a campaign video released on Saturday Tehran was renewing the program.