Punjab is likely to end up with a 39% rainfall deficit this season—the highest in the northern region—as the southwest monsoon begins to retreat with no more rain predicted, according to the India meteorological department (IMD).
The latest IMD data shows that state recorded 254.2 mm of rainfall between June 1 and September 19, compared to the normal average of 417 mm.
The IMD predicts that favourable weather conditions will lead to the further retreat of the southwest monsoon from additional parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, and the Saurashtra and Kutch regions over the next three to four days.
“The southwest monsoon has begun retreating from some parts of western Rajasthan. Favourable conditions are persisting for the further retreat of the southwest monsoon from some additional parts of Rajasthan, as well as from some areas of Punjab and the Saurashtra and Kutch regions over the next 3-4 days,” said the MeT department in a statement issued on Saturday.
With a dry spell expected over the coming days and no significant rainfall in the forecast, the state is likely to see little respite from the seasonal shortfall before the monsoon withdraws.
{{/usCountry}}With a dry spell expected over the coming days and no significant rainfall in the forecast, the state is likely to see little respite from the seasonal shortfall before the monsoon withdraws.
{{/usCountry}}The rainfall deficit has widened despite the state recording some rainfall in September. Between September 1 and 19, Punjab received 23.6 mm of rainfall against the normal of 54.9 mm, marking a deficiency of 57%.
The September shortfall has added to the seasonal deficit after below-normal rainfall in June and July, when the state received 29.5 mm and 119.3 mm, respectively.
In June, rainfall was 46% below the normal precipitation of 54.5 mm, while July recorded a 26% deficit against the monthly normal of 161.4 mm.
The cumulative rainfall figures underline the contrast with last year, when Punjab received 621 mm of rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, from June 1 to September 30, against the long-period average (LPA) of 439.8 mm — an excess of 41%.
The 2025 monsoon rainfall was Punjab’s highest since 1995 and the ninth-highest since 1901.
The state’s rainfall shortfall this year comes as the southwest monsoon enters its withdrawal phase, with the IMD’s latest assessment indicating favourable conditions for its retreat from parts of northwestern India.
Deficient monsoon adds to power woes
The deficient monsoon rainfall also added to Punjab’s power woes, with peak power demand crossing 16,000 MW on average during September, an unusual trend for the month.
With inadequate rainfall, farmers had to increasingly depend on tubewells to irrigate their paddy fields, adding to the electricity demand during the paddy season.
The increased reliance on groundwater irrigation, coupled with the demand for power amid prevailing dry conditions further strained the state’s power supply, contributing to the power crisis.