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Maharashtra mulls Covid-19 curbs by month-end amid 3rd wave talk
Although the restrictions are unlikely to be rolled out immediately, the state government may think of night curfew or restrictions on gatherings after the Ganesh festival, which starts on September 10.
Amid the possibility of the third wave of Covid-19 infections, the Maharashtra government has started deliberations on reimposing curbs to restrict crowding and contain the spread of the virus. Although the restrictions are unlikely to be rolled out immediately, the state government may think of night curfew or restrictions on gatherings after the Ganesh festival, which starts on September 10.
The state government expects a rise in Covid-19 cases between September 15 and the first week of October, which could be the beginning of the third wave, according to state health officials. Opening up of activities, local trains for the general public two weeks ago and the crowding during the festivals are expected to lead to a rise in daily cases, which currently hovers around 4,800 a day.
Mumbai’s guardian minister Aslam Shaikh said restrictions could be reimposed by September-end if cases rose significantly. He said there was no immediate need of night curfew or prohibition on assembly of people. “According to the task force, cases may increase by September-end and it may necessitate the resumption of restrictions. If people follow Covid-19 appropriate behaviour rigorously, there would not be a rise in the number of cases,” he said.
On Wednesday, the state reported 4,456 new Covid-19 cases and 183 fresh deaths, taking the case tally to 6,469,332 and the toll to 137,496. Mumbai saw a rise in cases with the addition of 415 infections on Wednesday — its highest daily caseload is highest in 44 days. Around 70% of the state’s Covid-19 caseload comes from five western Maharashtra districts — Pune, Ahmednagar, Satara, Solapur, Sangli — which are high on almost all Covid-19 parameters, including growth and positivity rate. Of the 44,366 patients registered during August 22-31, 30,888 or 70% are from these districts.
Chief minister Thackeray, during the presentation by the health department on the current Covid-19 situation on Wednesday, told his cabinet colleagues that the central government had asked the state to take due precautions. He said that the state needs to take care to keep the spread of the Covid-19 under check. The CM is expected to hold a review meeting with the state-appointed task force of doctors and officials from health and other departments in the next few days to discuss the steps in the wake of the possibility of the rise in cases.
The public health department has been projecting a rise in cases in two weeks after commencement of the Ganesh festival on September 10. The department has cited the example of Kerala , which saw a rise in cases immediately after Onam. The central government has projected the Covid-19 cases in the third wave to rise to 6 million from 4 million during the second wave. resulting in the oxygen demand to treat patients to rise to 3,500 to 4,000 metric tonnes a day.
“Another worry is the fewer antibodies among people in Maharashtra. Its 54% as per the serological survey reports by the Centre. It’s as high as 89% in Madhya Pradesh and much higher than us in other states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Though the vaccination rate is good in Maharashtra, the cases are likely to rise in the next few weeks,” health minister Tope said recently.
CM Thackeray has convened a medical conference on August 5 with doctors across the state in the wake of the potential third wave. The state government and the members of the task force will guide the doctors over the precautions, line of treatment during the potential wave.
Meanwhile, the weekly positivity rate in these districts is much higher than the state average. Pune has highest (6.15%) positivity rate, while Ahmednagar (4.85%), Sangli (4.01%) and Satara (3.97%), too, have recording high test positivity rate during the week ended on August 31, according to the presentation made by the public health department before the state cabinet on Wednesday.
The state’s weekly positivity rate is 2.58%, while eight districts, including Pune, Ahmednagar, Satara and Sangli, are above the state average. However, daily tests dropped to 193,848 in August, against 204,182 in July and 219,430 in June. Against the state’s weekly growth rate of 0.07%, eleven districts are above the state average — Ahmednagar (0.24%), Satara (0.23%), Solapur(0.23%) and Sangli (0.20%). The growth rate in the state has dropped significantly after touching 1.45% on April 30 during the second wave.
Maharashtra has 51,834 active patients, as on August 30, of which 16,818 or 49% are hospitalized. 26,423 or 51% of the active patients have mild symptoms, while 8,593 or 16.58% of them are serious. 3389 patients are in ICU, of which 1,410 or 2.72% of active patients are on ventilator support. A total of 1,979 patients are on oxygen support. A total of 5,204 patients outside ICU are on oxygen support, the presentation stated.
Pune district reported highest (1,099) cases on Wednesday. Ahmednagar clocked 676 cases, while Satara (548), Solapur (371) continued reporting a high number of cases. Pune (56), Solapur (23), Ratnagiri (22) and Satara (19) reported high number of deaths on Wednesday. The state has 51,078 active cases. The highest
(14,091) of them are in Pune, followed by Thane (6,911), Satara (5,979), Ahmednagar (5,655) and Mumbai (3,601).
