Shinde now BJP’s most influential ally

In terms of political significance, Shinde has helped the BJP “teach a lesson” to Uddhav Thackeray, who denied it a chance to form the government in Maharashtra even after emerging as the single largest party in the 2019 assembly elections

The ruling partner in one of the biggest states in India, the biggest ally in the National Democratic Alliance with 13 MPs in the Lok Sabha and head of a regional party. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde is now the most influential ally of the BJP, run by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah—seemingly more powerful than previous BJP allies such as Nitish Kumar and the Badals of Punjab. The decision of the Election Commission of India to recognise his faction as the real Shiv Sena has given legitimacy to his rebellion and made him more powerful.

**EDS: IMAGE VIA PIB** Mumbai: Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde at the launch of development projects and transfers benefits under PM-SVANidhi, in Mumbai, Thursday, Jan. 19, 2023. (PTI Photo) (PTI01_19_2023_000395B) (PTI)

In terms of political significance, Shinde has helped the BJP “teach a lesson” to Uddhav Thackeray, who denied it a chance to form the government in Maharashtra even after emerging as the single largest party in the 2019 assembly elections. Thackeray was also the face of the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) experiment in which the Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress came together to form a government. Had the experiment clicked and the MVA government completed its tenure, it would have become a template for anti-BJP parties to come together in other states. Now the BJP has set an example of what happens when someone takes the initiative to form an anti-BJP axis.

According to his close aides, Shinde is a favourite of both Modi and Shah. Unlike other allies of the BJP, he can directly approach them and also makes it a point to consult them before any major move. The camaraderie is such that Shinde discussed the names of his ministers with the BJP top brass before forming the cabinet. In fact, it is jokingly said that he now has more influence in Delhi than anyone in the Maharashtra BJP except Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis.

In the coming days, Shinde’s role will be important as the BJP prepares for the grand 2024 battle both at the Centre and in Maharashtra. In its plan for the next Lok Sabha elections, 48 seats in Maharashtra will be important. This also means Shinde will have to deliver on the political front, beginning with the civic and district polls that could be held soon.

Thackeray’s trust vote ‘blunder’

After the EC order recognising Shinde’s faction as the real Shiv Sena, MVA leaders have been pointing out that Thackeray probably committed a blunder by not facing the trust vote in the assembly last June. Following Shinde’s rebellion, the then governor B S Koshyari had asked CM Thackeray to prove his majority within 24 hours. Thackeray, however, chose to resign. MVA leaders say that the top NCP and Congress leaders, including NCP chief Sharad Pawar, had advised Thackeray to face the trust vote, forcing the Shinde-led rebels to take a clear stand in the assembly. Voting against the MVA government would have made the rebels liable for disqualification due to the stringent provisions of the anti-defection law. It would have also made the Sena’s case stronger in the Supreme Court.

Last week, when arguments were being heard by the SC pertaining to the disqualification of Shinde and his men, Shinde’s lawyers pointed out that the rebels did not vote against Thackeray on the floor of the house, as the latter resigned before the trust vote was brought before the assembly. Sena leaders close to Thackeray say the latter did not want to continue as CM after he saw the way his MLAs turned against him. “We knew that what had been started by Shinde and Co would not be limited to pulling down the government and forming another one. There were clear signs that the game also included taking over the party. It is happening now,” said a top MVA leader. In the brutal battle for power, it is strategy that matters, not emotions.

Ambedkar-NCP tussle intensifies

When the NCP recently nixed Uddhav Thackeray’s proposal to let the Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) join the MVA coalition, saying that Ambedkar was not a trustworthy ally, it perhaps didn’t bargain for what was to come next. In the forthcoming assembly by-election in Pune’s Chinchwad constituency, necessitated by the death of BJP MLA Laxman Jagtap, a triangular contest will ensue between Laxman’s widow Ashwini Jagtap, the NCP’s Nana Kate, and Rahul Kalate, who rebelled against the NCP and decided to contest as an independent after the party picked Kate instead of him. Now that Ambedkar has announced support to Kalate, the socially backward communities’ votes, which were being sought by the NCP, could gravitate towards Kalate, and this could work in the BJP’s favour. For the NCP, winning the Chinchwad poll is important, especially for NCP leader, Ajit Pawar, for whom a victory in his erstwhile stronghold would be significant. Ambedkar’s support, however, could be the proverbial spanner in the works.