After a brief dry spell following the early onset of the southwest monsoon, Maharashtra is now poised to receive widespread rainfall beginning June 13 with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting a monsoon revival. Weather experts attribute the expected increase in rainfall activity to the development of weather systems over the Bay of Bengal and strengthening of westerly winds from the Arabian Sea.
The southwest monsoon arrived unusually early in Maharashtra on May 25 - 14 days ahead of its normal onset—and covered nearly 45% of the state including major cities such as Mumbai, Pune and Ahilya Nagar within 24 hours. After this swift progression however, the monsoon stalled on May 27, leading to a dry spell across several areas. The unexpected pause left farmers uncertain about the time to sow the Kharif crop. Now after a two-week hiatus, the IMD has indicated that conditions favourable for the monsoon to regain momentum are developing. The revival is expected to bring much-needed rainfall across the state, helping relieve agricultural concerns and water stress in many areas.
According to the IMD’s latest forecast issued on June 10, a yellow alert for light to moderate rainfall has been issued for at least 28 districts on June 11. On June 12, all but three districts in the state have been placed under a similar alert. Meanwhile on June 12 and June 13, an orange alert has been issued for southern Maharashtra, particularly the districts of Sindhudurg and Kolhapur, in anticipation of heavy rainfall. The alert has been extended to Satara, Pune, Ratnagiri, and Raigad on June 14, with heavy rainfall expected to intensify in these regions. Most other areas in the state, excluding extreme northern districts, are expected to receive light to moderate rainfall during this time. The likelihood of continued rainfall in the coming weeks appears strong. Many global weather models and weather experts based in Pune suggest that Maharashtra is likely to experience good rainfall during the second half of June.
Commenting on the monsoon revival, Anupam Kashyapi, former head of the weather and forecasting division at IMD Pune, said that an upper air circulation is expected to develop over the Bay of Bengal around June 12. This system will contribute to the monsoon’s revival by enhancing the strength of westerly winds from the Arabian Sea. Kashyapi further noted that a second system is likely to form in the Bay of Bengal around June 18, slightly further north. While the first system is expected to primarily benefit the southern parts of the country, including southern Maharashtra, the second system will likely increase rainfall across the northern, eastern, and central parts of the state. Additionally, the strengthening westerlies will continue to bring rainfall to Maharashtra’s coastal regions.
{{/usCountry}}Commenting on the monsoon revival, Anupam Kashyapi, former head of the weather and forecasting division at IMD Pune, said that an upper air circulation is expected to develop over the Bay of Bengal around June 12. This system will contribute to the monsoon’s revival by enhancing the strength of westerly winds from the Arabian Sea. Kashyapi further noted that a second system is likely to form in the Bay of Bengal around June 18, slightly further north. While the first system is expected to primarily benefit the southern parts of the country, including southern Maharashtra, the second system will likely increase rainfall across the northern, eastern, and central parts of the state. Additionally, the strengthening westerlies will continue to bring rainfall to Maharashtra’s coastal regions.
{{/usCountry}}Kashyapi expressed confidence in a favourable rainfall pattern during the second half of June; a sentiment echoed by another weather scientist who cited the World Meteorological Organisation’s sub-seasonal forecast. The forecast, compiled from multiple leading global weather centres, suggests that the monsoon will remain active throughout the latter part of the month. With these developments, Maharashtra looks set for a crucial revival of monsoon activity, bringing much-needed relief to farmers and boosting hopes for a successful Kharif season.
Meanwhile in Pune, cloudy weather can be experienced with chances of thunder and rainfall. S D Sanap, senior meteorologist from IMD Pune, said, “The city is likely to experience generally cloudy skies for the next 24 hours and there are chances of thunder activities along with lightning and isolated moderate rainfall. From June 12 onwards, the sky will be mainly cloudy in the city and thunderstorms with lightning and moderate to heavy rain is likely to be experienced in Pune.”