Maharashtra polls: Independents soar, could hurt both alliances
Maharashtra has had a history of independents since its first assembly elections in 1962 when 437 candidates contested and 15 independents secured seats
A record 2,087 out of the total 4,136 candidates contesting from 288 constituencies across Maharashtra in the 2024 assembly elections are independents. In the 2019 state assembly elections, 1,400 independent candidates were in the fray out of which 13 (Prakash Awade, Manjula Gavit, Rajendra Raut, Ravi Rana etc.) won. The increase in the number of independents this year has raised concerns over their potential impact on the outcome despite low chances of them securing seats individually. The sheer number of independents has also sparked concerns that some of them may be ‘dummy candidates’ much like what was observed in the recent Haryana polls. Dummy candidates are typically put forward by political parties or influential figures to confuse voters, split votes, or further strategic political goals.
Maharashtra has had a history of independents since its first assembly elections in 1962 when 437 candidates contested and 15 independents secured seats in the 264-member assembly. In 1967, the assembly size expanded to 270 with 16 independents elected out of 463 contestants. In the 1972 elections, 23 independents secured victory; in 1978, 28 independents won as an anti-Congress wave, amplified by national political upheaval, brought them to the forefront; whereas in 1980, only 10 independents won as the Congress (I) made a strong return to power. In 1985, 1,506 independents (the highest ever number at the time) contested with 20 independents securing seats in the assembly.
The 1990 elections changed Maharashtra’s political landscape as the Congress fell just short of a majority, winning 141 out of 288 seats. In a surprising turn, 12 out of the 13 elected independent MLAs extended their support to Sharad Pawar, enabling him to form the government. In the 1995 assembly elections, as many as 3,196 (the highest number till date) independents contested with 45 of them emerging victorious. These rebel independents were pivotal in the formation of the Shiv Sena (undivided)-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government with many of them going on to hold ministerial positions. In the 1999 elections, independents again played a crucial role in government formation. With the Congress and its breakaway faction, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), contesting separately, 12 out of 837 independents who contested were elected and helped form the Congress-NCP coalition government known as the ‘Democratic Front’ by extending their support in exchange for ministerial posts.
In the 2004 assembly elections, 1,083 independents contested out of which 19 won. Among the successful candidates were Prataprao Chikhalikar and Babanrao Pachpute, both of whom had strong ties with the Congress. In the 2009 assembly elections, as the Congress-NCP alliance faced anti-incumbency, 1,820 independents contested out of which 24 secured victories. Notably, Vasai became the first constituency in Maharashtra to elect an independent MLA for a fourth consecutive term. In 2014, 1,699 independent candidates contested the assembly elections out of which only seven candidates secured wins. Among them were Ravi Rana, Bacchu Kadu, and Mahesh Landge (now contesting on a BJP ticket). In the 2019 state assembly elections, 1,400 independent candidates were in the fray out of which 13 won.
As Maharashtra goes to polls again this year, the curious case of independents continues to draw attention. While many independents are unlikely to win, their presence—especially in key constituencies—could still influence the outcome, as seen in previous elections. Whether they will once again play ‘kingmaker’ or remain largely symbolic is a question that will be answered only as the results unfold. However, political observers feel that some independents such as Hina Gavit, Sameer Bhujbal and Ranjit Shinde (son of sitting MLA, Baban Shinde) are likely to hamper the electoral prospects of major party candidates. If a substantial number of independents manage to siphon-off votes from major parties, the impact could be considerable.
Abhay Deshpande, a political analyst, said, “In fact in 1999, independents played a pivotal role in the formation of the government. This year, election battles in each and every constituency are fierce so definitely, small parties and independents will assume significance if they get good numbers.”
Another political analyst, Mahesh Sane, said that nearly 50% of candidates contesting elections are independent. “In our state assembly elections, independents are always playing a crucial role. This year is different as compared to earlier elections because after the realignment of the political map, many smaller parties and independent candidates can damage both alliances (ruling Mahayuti and opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi/MVA). Though both alliances have taken lots of efforts, many independents are in the fray due to political aspirations. I think those independents who get more than 5,000 votes can be said to have won…”
