Data check: What Bumrah brings to the table for India

India's bowling strategy faces a major challenge without Jasprit Bumrah, whose absence could hinder their chances against England in the second Test.

New Delhi: India may maintain their silence about Jasprit Bumrah’s availability in the second Test at Edgbaston until the last moment but England captain Ben Stokes said that they were not fussed about it at all. “That’s India’s problem, they will deal with it,” he said.

In the first Test at Leeds, the pitch was flat but the Indian bowling often looked listless yet Jasprit Bumrah found a way to create impact. (AP)

It is India’s problem, indeed. And a big one at that. Their plan with regards to how they will deal with it does not instill confidence, yet.

With the bowling spearhead only available for three matches and the visitors having already conceded a 1-0 lead, they have a task on their hands. In the first Test at Leeds, the pitch was flat but the Indian bowling often looked listless yet Bumrah found a way to create impact.

Bumrah’s figures in the first Test might suggest a solid performance with 5 wickets in the match, an average of 28.0, but it’s the comparative data that should worry India.

While Bumrah struck once every 52.4 balls, the rest of India’s bowlers managed a combined strike rate of 83.4. Meanwhile, his average of 28 is less than half of the rest of the bowling line up – 65.4. It’s a stark contrast to how toothless India looked without him. On the scoreboard and to the viewer, he was the only bowler who looked capable of consistently threatening England’s aggressive batting approach.

For England, purely by numbers, Josh Tongue was the most impactful with 7 wickets, but in terms of impact on key moments, Ben Stokes and Brydon Carse made the bigger difference by removing India’s top order, while Tongue mainly cleaned up the tail.

That was the role Bumrah played for India – cutting through the top-order and exposing England’s vulnerabilities. A closer look at the wicket breakdown suggests that the wicket quality is in Bumrah’s favour. Bumrah removed three top-order English batters – Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett and Joe Root. Prasidh Krishna also picked up three wickets in the top order – Ollie Pope (1st innings), Crawley and Pope (2nd innings). Shardul Thakur picked up two wickets but only one of those dismissals came from the top four.

Bumrah’s absence means that India will miss not just a wicket-taker but a bowler who bends games back in their favour. Bumrah’s consistency across World Test Championship cycles proves that. In matches where he takes three or more wickets in an innings, India have a win-loss-draw record of 15-9-4.

Over the last three WTC cycles, Bumrah has displayed an astonishing level of control as a pacer, maintaining a dot ball percentage of 79-80%. His false shot percentage has steadily climbed from 20-21% to peaking at 28% in the 2023-25 cycle. In a nutshell, batters are playing fewer scoring shots and more bad ones against him over time.

The coaching staff of Gautam Gambhir and Ryan ten Doeschate maintain that despite his unavailability in at least two matches, they can put together a winning XI. A single bowler cannot win you matches and questioning bowlers constantly means hindering the path to develop a pace battery, they say. But there is no denying that it is a mental blow. When Bumrah plays, his energy and accuracy bring a certain authority to the field. England’s batters know they can’t take liberties when he’s bowling.

Without him, India must find other ways to hold England back. But as the numbers show, replicating Bumrah is tough. Another option is adding another attacking bowler. One that England might hesitate to take liberties against. But if India believe that their lower-order batting and not their bowling is the primary area of concern as of now, it could be too late in the series before they address it.