The results of the recently held Nagaon parliamentary constituency (PC) bypoll in Assam suggest more trouble for the already troubled Congress party in the state. The Congress won the Nagaon PC with 50% vote share in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Its MP, Pradyut Bordoloi, left the Congress to join the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) just before the 2026 assembly elections, which triggered the bypoll. Not only did the Congress lose the bypoll, it did so very badly, managing to
AIUDF’s primary support base in Assam was among Muslim voters
According to the 2011 census, Muslims accounted for 34.2% of Assam’s population, the highest among Indian states. Within the state, the Muslim population is pretty skewed, with just 14 out of Assam’s 27 Census 2011 districts accounting for 90% of the state’s Muslims. The AIUDF contested its first assembly election in 2006 and registered its best performance in 2011 when it won 18 out of the state’s 126 assembly constituencies (ACs). If one were to divide the state into two parts dividing 90% and 10% of the state’s Muslim population, at least 92.3% of the AIUDF’s MLAS and 94.5% of its vote share in every assembly election between 2006 to 2016 came from the former. In 2021, even when the AIUDF had an alliance with the Congress, all of its MLAs came from the Muslim dominated districts. However, its graph fell really badly even in the Muslim majority districts in the 2024 and 2026 Lok Sabha and assembly elections.
The 2021 Congress-AIUDF alliance marked a recent peak of Muslim representation in Assam assembly
HT’s historical database of the religious composition of the Assam assembly shows that the state’s highest share of Muslim MLAs was in the 1983 elections when 33 Muslim MLAs were elected in an assembly of 126. This number fell sharply to 24 by the 1991 election and remained constant until 2006, the first election when the AIUDF contested. The number increased once again to 31 by 2021, when the Congress and the AIUDF formed an alliance. The 2026 election, which saw the Congress and the AIUDF contest separately and also a delimitation of AC boundaries, saw the number of Muslim MLAs fall to 22, the lowest since 1972. The 2026 results were also marked by the share of Congress among Muslim MLAs reaching its highest since 1972, while that of the AIUDF’s fell to its lowest since 2006.
What has changed between 1972 and 2026 for the Congress is its marginalization among non-Muslim voters
In the last three assembly elections (2016, 2021, and 2026), the share of Muslim MLAs in the Congress’s total MLAs has always been greater than 50%-- it was 57.7%, 55.2%, and 94.7%. Between 1972 and 2006, this number was never above 32.3% (which happened in the 1996 assembly elections). Between 2006 and 2026, the share of Congress votes coming from the 13 districts with just 10% of the total state Muslim population has been declining. It was 44.7% in 2006, came down to 37.7% in 2016 and dropped to a historic low of 26.3% in the 2026 assembly elections. In the 2006 assembly elections, out of 53 ACs it won, it won 26 from the districts with 10% of the total Muslim population. In the 2026 elections, it managed to win just one AC from these districts. If the Congress were to lose substantial support even among Muslims, it could suffer further marginalisation in a state it ruled for decades.
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