Once again, media reports are at it, speculating about the holding of the Leaders’ Summit of Quad countries – the US, India, Japan, and Australia. This time, the focus is on whether the meeting will take place in Manila, on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit and related meetings next week. Insiders say that, subject to confirmation of President Donald Trump’s participation, the four leaders are certain to meet in a bid to re-energise this plurilateral grouping by investing it with the highest level of political support.
Quad, as it has developed since 2017, has functioned to secure two principal goals: One, to project the participants’ resolve to balance and constrain China’s coercive actions and assertive policy in the Indo-Pacific region, and two, to win and retain friends and partners for Quad's vision of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), first enunciated by Japan.
Quad has become an integral part of the foreign policies of the four participating countries – three treaty allies (the US, Japan, and Australia), and one common strategic partner (India). But it has been long on announcements and short on delivery, especially since the Trump 2.0 administration began its innings in January 2025. Between September 2019 and October 2026, the foreign ministers of Quad held a total of 13 meetings, three of them in 2026 alone – May (New Delhi), July (Manila), and October (Atlanta). Leaders held six meetings between March 2021 and September 2024, of which two were online. If the next summit takes place later this month, it will be the first to include President Trump.
Much substantial work has indeed been done at the level of foreign ministers. At the meeting in Delhi, they said their mission was to help countries determine “their own paths.” They reiterated the importance of adhering to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Besides, they articulated their common position on the four pillars of Quad’s mandate:
- maritime and transnational security
- economic prosperity and security
- critical and emerging technology, and
- humanitarian assistance and emergency response.
Much substantial work has indeed been done at the level of foreign ministers. At the meeting in Delhi, they said their mission was to help countries determine “their own paths.” They reiterated the importance of adhering to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Besides, they articulated their common position on the four pillars of Quad’s mandate:
- maritime and transnational security
- economic prosperity and security
- critical and emerging technology, and
- humanitarian assistance and emergency response.
By issuing two other agreed documents, they also expressed their harmonised positions on energy security and critical minerals. The Factsheet, a negotiated document, also mentioned several other initiatives.
The Delhi meeting was followed by an hour-long meeting of the foreign ministers in Manila in July, held on the sidelines of ASEAN-related meetings. This meeting was noted for the strong message it sent about Quad’s support for ASEAN centrality and unity, as well as the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP).
ASEAN remains a crucial player for both Quad and China in the broader context of the long-standing US-China strategic rivalry and the complex relations Japan, India, and Australia maintain with China today. The specific context is the growing proximity between Washington and Beijing, created through a series of meetings between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in Busan, Beijing, and Washington over the past 12 months. The present US policy to promote a constructive relationship with China, based on “strategic stability”, needs to be harmonised with Quad and the diplomatic baggage it carries.
The latest Quad foreign ministers' meeting took place in Atlanta, Georgia, on October 31. Their joint press release on economic prosperity and security stressed the importance of building “reliable and open global supply chains” and expressed “grave concerns regarding economic coercion,” shorthand for negative actions by China. A new item was Quad’s deep concern about “the proliferation of online and cyber scams” that threaten national and international peace and security.
On the four pillars of cooperation, the ministers went into detail, discussing the Quad Fuel Security Forum, providing 2000 infrastructure fellowships across the Pacific, and ensuring progress in securing resilient digital connectivity in the Indo-Pacific. Another novel feature was the launch of commercial diplomacy through the first-ever Business Leaders Forum, to be convened soon. Further, both on maritime security and the use of Artificial/Super Intelligence, ministers agreed to push forward concrete proposals for collaboration.
Most importantly, they said they “look forward to the convening of the Quad Leaders’ Summit,” and to continuing the ministerial work to “advance peace, stability, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.”
US secretary of State Marco Rubio told the media after the meeting that “the Quad was not an anti-China or anti-anybody coalition.” While not naming China, he said concerns about Quad's activities reportedly came from one country. He also stressed that the US administration wanted Quad to focus on practical deliverables and regular projects rather than just holding talks and making pronouncements.
As the chances of the Quad summit taking place in Manila brightened, China’s unease seems to have increased. This was best reflected in a recent Global Times article. “If certain countries seek to use a small circle summit,” it stated, “to openly demonstrate their intention to interfere in South China Sea affairs, China will inevitably oppose it resolutely.” In the past, Beijing has criticised Quad as an “Asian NATO” designed to contain China’s power and influence.
President Trump is scheduled to travel from Manila to Shenzhen, China, to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. After meeting Xi Jinping there, he will be ready to receive him in Miami, Florida, for the G20 meeting in mid-December. India and Australia too will be anxious to preserve the recent progress achieved in their respective relations with China. Japan-China ties, however, remain strained. In this light, it will be fascinating to watch how the Quad summit pronounces itself on China’s threat and role in the Indo-Pacific region.
(The views expressed are personal)
This article is authored by Rajiv Bhatia, Distinguished Fellow, Gateway House and former ambassador.