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Bihar polls: BJP likely to retain most of sitting legislators in first list
BJP's Bihar assembly candidate list will feature fewer new faces, focusing on winnability and social representation, amid alliance constraints.
New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party’s list of candidates for the upcoming Bihar assembly polls is expected to have fewer new faces and is unlikely to throw up too many surprises, although it will be in line with the party’s social engineering formula of giving representation to a wider set of castes, according to people aware of the details.
The BJP, which is contesting the elections in alliance with the Janata Dal (United) and other smaller partners, is expected to announce its first list of candidates next week. Elections to the 243-member assembly will be held in two phases on November 6 and 11 and results will be declared on November 14.
A senior party functionary said there will be no deviation from the BJP’s template for selecting candidates that is based on winnability of the contestants, their age, caste and political experience. “This time the BJP will be contesting on about 100 odd seats of which the party is an incumbent on 80. This does not leave enough room for the party to experiment. Of the 80 sitting MLAs, only some will be dropped either on account of their performance or their age,” the functionary said, asking not to be named.
The BJP typically drops around 20-30% of the sitting MLAs to buck anti-incumbency, but leaders in the state said this formula may not be replicated in the upcoming Bihar polls.
In 2015, the BJP contested the polls alone, fighting on 157 seats of which it won just 53. In 2020, it went to polls with allies including JD(U), and contested on 110 seats, winning 74. The party’s tally has since increased to 80 following bypoll wins and some members switching parties.
“After the 2015 election, the party had a long list of contenders in each constituency to pick from, but being in an alliance means we have to spare seats for the allies as well. This time we have Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), Hindustan Awam Morcha (Secular) of Jitan Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) with the NDA, which means the number of seats that the BJP will contest on will go down further,” the functionary said.
Besides losing seats to allies, the BJP will also have to consider parting with some constituencies that are considered its stronghold, such as Govindganj, which the LJP(RV) is seeking. In the Magadh and Shahabad regions, which collectively have 48 seats, the RLSP is eyeing a lion’s share.
Leaders indicated that newer faces could be fielded in some seats such as Alinagar, where incumbent Misri Lal has been suspended after being convicted in a case; in Kumhrar, where incumbent Arun Kumar Sinha is over 74 years; and in seats where the BJP candidates did not win such as Muzaffarpur.
The list of newer faces is likely to include deputy chief minister Samrat Choudhary, former Union and state minister Shahnawaz Hussain, incumbent state ministers Janak Ram and Mangal Pandey.
While both the BJP and the JD(U) covet women voters that make up for 48% of the electorate, there is no decision yet on whether more women contestants than 2020 will be fielded. The BJP had given tickets to 13 women candidates, of which nine won.
A second BJP leader, also declining to be named, said while party surveys and feedback from the RSS indicate that anti-incumbency is largely absent and does not pose a threat to the NDA’s bid to retain power in the state, there are “unfavourable” reports about a clutch of NDA legislators who will be dropped.
“Candidate selection is a party prerogative but since we are contesting as allies and have decided to even swap seats for better outcome, the parties will exchange information on the feedback about our respective legislators to make a more informed choice,” the second leader added.
