Cyclone Jawad may form on Friday: IMD
A low-pressure area over south Thailand and the neighbourhood on Tuesday morning was likely to emerge into the Andaman Sea during the next 12 hours
Cyclone Jawad, the first cyclonic storm after the southwest monsoon ended, is likely to develop over central Bay of Bengal on December 3. It could see wind speeds of up to 117kmph and cause widespread rainfall over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday.
A low pressure over southern Thailand and its neighbourhood at 8:30 am is likely to emerge into the Andaman Sea during the next 12 hours, the weather bureau said. “Thereafter, it is likely to move west-northwestwards and concentrate into a depression over southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal by December 2 and intensify into a cyclonic storm over the central parts of the Bay of Bengal during the subsequent 24 hours,” it said in a statement.
The storm may intensify further and reach northern Andhra Pradesh and Odisha on December 4. It’s not yet certain whether the cyclone will make landfall in Odisha or simply skirt India’s east coast, the weather office said.
There could be very heavy rainfall in coastal Odisha, West Bengal and northern Andhra Pradesh, the Met department said.
Three depressions and at least three low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal resulted in widespread and heavy rainfall to peninsular India throughout November, leading to floods in several parts of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. The low-pressure systems were formed mainly because of above-normal temperatures in the north equatorial Indian Ocean, the weather body said.
The near-equatorial trough or an area of wind convergence, also called the intertropical convergence zone, which is normally not very active during this season, remained active this year from the southern Bay of Bengal to the northwest of the Pacific.
“This may be because sea surface temperatures are warm. So convective activity is strong and more and more cyclonic vortices are forming this month. Jawad once formed will be a severe cyclone but we cannot say immediately if it will cross or skirt the east coast,” said Sunitha Devi, who is in charge of cyclones at IMD, said.
Sea surface temperature over the north equatorial Indian Ocean has been higher than normal in recent months, said DS Pai, head of IMD Pune’s Climate Research and Services.
“Easterly waves are also coming to the Indian Ocean region from the northwest Pacific. These are then forming into low-pressure systems over the Indian Ocean,” Pai said, adding that a warm Indian Ocean may be a result of intra-seasonal variability and also the climate crisis.
In May last year, Cyclone Amphan tore through West Bengal, leaving a trail of death and destruction. Over 13 million people were affected and more than 1.5 million houses were damaged. Over three million people were evacuated before the storm made landfall over the Bengal coast.
Meanwhile, a cyclonic circulation is lying over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Maldives-Lakshadweep areas, and a trough (line of low pressure) at mean sea level is running from this cyclonic circulation to the east-central Arabian Sea, off the Karnataka coast, the IMD said, adding that a low pressure area is likely to form over east-central Arabian Sea, off the Maharashtra coast, around Wednesday.
A fresh active western disturbance as a trough in mid-latitude westerlies is likely to affect northwest and adjoining central India from Tuesday night and interact with lower-level troughs in the easterlies, the weather body said.
Due to this interaction, widespread rain or thunderstorms with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely in Gujarat on December 1, it added.
The IMD has also predicted isolated heavy rainfall in Gujarat on Thursday and north Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra on Wednesday. Thunderstorms and lightning are likely in the region with possibilities of isolated hailstorms, it said.
Scattered rainfall, thunderstorms and lightning were also likely in western Madhya Pradesh, eastern Rajasthan, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh on Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread rainfall or snowfall with isolated thunderstorms/lightning was likely in Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit and Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh till December 3, the IMD said.