Experts fear blow to climate research after sackings in US agency

Experts stress that global cooperation in climate modeling and research is crucial for forecasting severe weather, with NOAA playing a key role in these efforts

The Trump administration has dismissed hundreds of researchers and meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a move scientists warned on Saturday will significantly impact climate forecasting and research in India.

NOAA is engaged in numerous programmes and partnerships with MoES and other Indian science agencies. (Shutterstock)

Experts emphasised that global cooperation on climate modelling and research is essential for forecasting severe weather events, with NOAA playing a strategic role in these efforts.

“Most of the global data, the models, and tools that we use are from NOAA. Around 50% of the ocean observations in the Indian Ocean are supported by NOAA,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, Climate Scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) author.

The dismissals come at a critical time for US-India climate cooperation. Last July, NOAA announced that a 12-year collaboration between its Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and the Indian ministry of earth sciences had culminated in the renewal of technical cooperation in tracking tropical cyclone and their prediction in Indian seas.

According to NOAA’s official page on bilateral agreements, the agency “is engaged in numerous programmes, partnerships and collaborations with MoES and other Indian science agencies in meteorology, climate variability and change, hydrology, oceanography, and coastal and ocean management.”

Koll warned of far-reaching consequences: “The fundamental model that we and the India Meteorological Department use for weather and seasonal forecasts and climate projections in the country are developed by NOAA scientists. In fact, to address challenges in weather and climate forecasting, we needed NOAA to scale up their operations and also strengthen our collaborative efforts. Hence, any weakening in NOAA’s function is going to be detrimental for climate research, monitoring, and disaster preparedness worldwide.”

While the India Meteorological Department did not comment on the impact of the NOAA staff cuts, a senior meteorologist at IMD, asking not to be named, acknowledged the global repercussions. “NOAA runs climate models which are adapted by many countries including India for climate forecasting. Obviously, there will be a global impact. But data may still be available since they can source data from other private agencies,” the meteorologist said.

Mahesh Palawat, vice president of climate and meteorology at Skymet Weather, criticised the approach of reducing human expertise in climate science. “In the US, we are seeing downsizing of climate and weather-related research. The thinking is that Artificial Intelligence and modelling can do everything. But that is not the case. Human interpretation and experience of the meteorologist or the scientist always counts,” he said.

Palawat questioned the practicality of the cuts: “Who will run the models and interpret the model output based on current observations? Manpower reduction in this sector is not a good idea simply because depending on machines alone is not feasible. Science is not at that stage yet.” He added that the Climate Prediction Center run by NOAA provides important forecasts globally which are critical for understanding expected weather and climate patterns.

M Rajeevan, former secretary of Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) and climate scientist, said that NOAA is a premier organisation for weather and climate. “They have numerous international projects including India. The biggest advantage with NOAA is that they put out all products online. Anyone can use it,” he said. “MoES and NOAA have an active collaboration in weather and climate in terms of observations and modeling. We use their models, but much improved version for our forecasts. They keep helping us in improving models. We jointly operate ocean observations over the Indian Ocean.”

Rajeevan termed the dismissals at NOAA as “disastrous”. “This is crucial for disaster management for the region. Moreover, cutting down NOAA will impact their own disaster management. It is a bit like cutting the tree branch in which they are sitting comfortably,” he said.

The staff reductions follow a pattern of disengagement from climate initiatives. On February 25, HT reported that the US had withdrawn from the seventh assessment cycle of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) during a meeting in Hangzhou, China. With the Trump administration having already announced its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, its absence in Hangzhou suggests the US could withdraw from the UN Climate Convention itself.

Scientists noted that any temporary financial benefit from diverting money away from climate action would be outweighed by the much higher costs of exceeding Paris Agreement goals.

These developments come as climate records continue to be broken. Last year was India’s warmest on record, with the annual mean air temperature 0.65°C above normal. January 2025 was the second warmest January since records began in 1901, while February was the warmest ever, according to the India Meteorological Department. Globally, last year was the warmest on record and the first calendar year that the average global temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.