G20 Summit: How the Delhi Declaration feeds into COP28

The declaration emphasises the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities and different national circumstances

New Delhi: The Delhi Declaration captures the intent of the G20 countries, responsible for 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions, to meet Paris Agreement goals although it doesn’t get into the details of how this will be done.

To be sure, the declaration doesn’t mean G20 members will have to adopt these positions in the climate talks. (PTI)

One of the most important aspects of the declaration is that it underlines the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) in mitigation efforts and also of different national circumstances -- both of which will likely be cited by the Global South ahead of the UN Climate Meeting (COP28) in Dubai this November. There is a deep trust deficit seen at climate negotiations particularly on historical responsibility, sharing of the mitigation burden and on the lack of adequate climate finance.

The strongest show of intent in the declaration is the commitment of the G20 “to achieve global net zero GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions/carbon neutrality by or around mid-century” and “pursue and encourage efforts to triple renewable energy capacity globally through existing targets and policies, as well as demonstrate similar ambition with respect to other zero and low-emission technologies, including abatement and removal technologies, in line with national circumstances by 2030.” Both signal the opportunity for substantial mitigation action at COP28, although the declaration is silent on phasing down or phasing out fossil fuels.

Experts said the commitment to net zero is a strong show of intent and point out that it is a “global” goal with not all countries expected to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. “I note that the declaration commits countries to achieve global net zero emissions by mid-century. Hopefully the advanced economies will recognise that they need to achieve this milestone well before 2050,” said Manjeev Singh Puri, former climate negotiator and ambassador. The Paris Agreement principle of “equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances,” is well recognised in the G20 declaration, the experts added.

The principle is reflected in the way the declaration has referred to timeline for peaking of emissions. The G20 recognised that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C requires rapid, deep and sustained reductions in global GHG emissions of 43% by 2030 relative to the 2019 levels. It also took note of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s finding that global GHG emissions are projected to peak between 2020 and at the latest before 2025 in global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C.

“This does not imply peaking in all countries within this timeframe; timeframes for peaking may be shaped by sustainable development, poverty eradication needs, equity, and in line with different national circumstances,” the document states, reflecting a position that the global South has sought to adopt at climate talks.

“This is a very important statement that may not have been possible to insert in a climate negotiation document. It means a lot for the emerging economies and clearly it has been accepted by the entire G20,” said another former negotiator who asked not to be named.

To be sure, the declaration doesn’t mean G20 members will have to adopt these positions in the climate talks.

“It is important to remember that negotiating blocs may not follow or even refer to what has been declared in the G20 outcome. So their stance may be different at COP28,” said a former climate negotiator.

“But this may certainly help”.

Tripling of renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency and doubling hydrogen production to 180m tons per year by 2030 are highlights of the plan for the UN Climate Conference (COP28) released by Sultan-Al-Jaber, COP28 President Designate in July. These will be critical in keeping global warming under 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels, he said then.

For the global South, the new estimates of climate finance provided in the declaration will also serve as a benchmark for negotiating climate finance related matters at COP28.

The G20 states that it notes the need of $ 5.8-5.9 trillion in the pre-2030 period required for developing countries, in particular, to implement their nationally determined contributions (NDCs; basically emission reduction commitments), as well as the need of $ 4 trillion per year for clean energy technologies by 2030 to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

“The G20 has made important progress and I am specifically grateful for the commitment made today to triple renewables by 2030. These 20 countries account for 80% of global emissions, so this declaration sends a powerful signal for climate progress. I further welcome their alignment with the COP28 agenda concerning loss & damage, adaptation finance, closing out the $100 billion pledge made over a decade ago. I call on all countries to meet the challenge head on by committing to transformative climate action. We must meet the financial commitments of yesterday, whilst creating new ones for tomorrow,” Sultan Al Jaber, COP28 President-Designate said in a statement.

The G20 has also put it down in the declaration that the long awaited $ 100 billion a year climate finance for developing countries will be finally met this year.

“Developed country contributors expect this goal to be met for the first time in 2023,” the declaration stated.

“The G20 declaration reflects a progressive yet balanced approach. On climate change and energy related issues, it has been able to get G20 support for all the IPCC indicated targets related to emissions reduction in the near term as well as long term while underscoring the finance related commitments made at the previous COPs as well as those that are expected to be made at the next CoP,” said RR Rashmi, Distinguished Fellow and Programme Director, Earth Science and Climate Change, The Energy and Resources Institute.