Onion prices have risen about 10% in wholesale markets over the past week as delayed arrivals of the new kharif crop tighten supplies, with traders expecting prices to climb further by another ₹8-10 per kg before fresh produce reaches markets in larger quantities in November.
At Lasalgaon, one of India’s largest onion trading markets in Maharashtra, prices touched ₹4,551 per quintal on Monday, up about ₹2 per kg from Saturday. Daily arrivals have fallen around 15% over the past week, according to Vikas Singh of the Horticulture Produce Exporters Association (HEPA).
The increase comes as stocks from the previous rabi harvest are running low, while arrivals of the new kharif crop have been delayed by nearly a month.
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Why the Kharif Crop Has Been Delayed
Pushan Sharma, director at Crisil Intelligence, attributed the delay to weak rainfall in June, which was 40% below the long-period average and affected onion sowing and transplantation.
{{/usCountry}}Pushan Sharma, director at Crisil Intelligence, attributed the delay to weak rainfall in June, which was 40% below the long-period average and affected onion sowing and transplantation.
{{/usCountry}}“Rabi stocks are largely depleted and kharif stocks are arriving at a very slow pace. This is why onion prices still remain elevated,” Sharma said.
Onion Harvest Seasons and Expected Arrivals
India produces onions in two main seasons. The rabi crop, sown around November-December and harvested in March-April, accounts for nearly two-thirds of annual production. This crop is stored and used to meet market demand until September or early October, when supplies from the kharif harvest typically begin arriving.
This year, however, kharif arrivals that usually begin around late September or early October are expected to pick up only towards the end of October, Sharma said.
Singh said the new crop from Nashik, which generally starts arriving around October 15, has also been delayed. Supplies from Alwar in Rajasthan may begin around November 1, while Nashik is expected to see larger arrivals after Diwali, around November 10. Supplies from Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat are also expected to improve towards the end of October.
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Price Outlook and Festive Demand
Some traders expect onion prices to rise by another ₹8-10 per kg before the increase in supplies begins easing the pressure.
Sharma expects prices to moderate as arrivals improve, although festive demand could keep them elevated in the immediate term.
“We are expecting that onion supplies will pick up in the coming days and prices should moderate. However, peak demand for the Dussehra and Diwali season is also going to coincide with this period, keeping onion prices elevated in the short term,” he said.
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Late-Kharif Sowing Could Increase Supplies
While the delayed kharif crop is expected to reach markets in larger quantities after Diwali, higher sowing in the late-kharif season could improve supplies from January and may lead to a price crash then, Singh said.
He expects farmers to respond to elevated onion prices by increasing late-kharif sowing, particularly in Maharashtra, where some may shift from crops such as wheat and sugarcane to onion. Onion requires around three rounds of irrigation, making it a relatively less water-intensive option, while its current prices could make it an attractive cash crop for farmers, he said.