The low-pressure area over southwest and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal moved northeastwards and lay over west central and adjoining south Bay of Bengal on Thursday morning, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warning that cyclone ‘Remal’ is expected to form over east central Bay of Bengal by May 25 morning.
Subsequently, it will move nearly northwards and reach near Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal coasts by May 26 evening as a severe cyclonic storm clocking winds of 100 to 120 kmph, the IMD said on Thursday.
“It is very likely to continue to move northeastwards and concentrate into a Depression over central parts of Bay of Bengal by morning of May 24. Thereafter, it is very likely to continue to move northeastwards, intensify further into a cyclonic storm over east central Bay of Bengal by May 25 morning,” the IMD said.
Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, had on Sunday warned that a low-pressure system would develop in south Bay of Bengal during May 22–23.
“Sea surface temperatures in the south Bay of Bengal have been 2–3°C warmer than usual for quite some time. Persistently high sea surface temperatures provide constant supply of heat and moisture, essential for cyclone formation. The Madden Julian Oscillation, an eastward traveling band of clouds, coupled with the winds and warm ocean waters, is moving to the south of Bay of Bengal. These winds provide a rotational trigger for the cyclones to initiate” Koll said, adding that “the restricting factor could be a quick northward progression of the monsoon, suppressing the vertical formation of the cyclone”.
{{/usCountry}}“Sea surface temperatures in the south Bay of Bengal have been 2–3°C warmer than usual for quite some time. Persistently high sea surface temperatures provide constant supply of heat and moisture, essential for cyclone formation. The Madden Julian Oscillation, an eastward traveling band of clouds, coupled with the winds and warm ocean waters, is moving to the south of Bay of Bengal. These winds provide a rotational trigger for the cyclones to initiate” Koll said, adding that “the restricting factor could be a quick northward progression of the monsoon, suppressing the vertical formation of the cyclone”.
{{/usCountry}}If that’s the case, he said, this low-pressure area will end up as a monsoon depression bringing rain. “Otherwise, it could develop to a weak cyclone of a short duration.”