Getting elections right in India is never straightforward. Voter moods can shift quietly, alliances can confuse arithmetic, and last-minute swings often go undetected. Yet, in the middle of this uncertainty, Axis My India has got its prediction right for Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
The Tamil Nadu Assembly elections were held in a single phase on April 23, recording a historic turnout of 84.69%, the highest since Independence in the state. The previous highest was 78.29% in 2011. Meanwhile, Kerala recorded a turnout of 78.27% across 140 constituencies.
Tamil Nadu: Spotting a political shift early
In Tamil Nadu, Axis My India’s projections stood out for identifying a major churn in the state’s political landscape. The exit poll pointed to a dramatic rise of actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), projecting it to secure between 98 and 120 seats.
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This was significant because it challenged the long-standing dominance of the Dravidian heavyweights. The poll suggested a tight race, with the incumbent DMK alliance estimated at 92–100 seats.
Kerala: Reading the undercurrent correctly
{{/usCountry}}This was significant because it challenged the long-standing dominance of the Dravidian heavyweights. The poll suggested a tight race, with the incumbent DMK alliance estimated at 92–100 seats.
Kerala: Reading the undercurrent correctly
{{/usCountry}}In Kerala, the agency’s projections again reflected a strong grasp of voter sentiment. The exit poll predicted a comeback for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), estimating it would win 78 to 90 seats in the 140-member assembly.
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At the same time, it predicted the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) to fall behind with 49–62 seats. This was notable given that the LDF had been in power for a decade, making any prediction of a shift more challenging.
The data shows Congress-led UDF leading in the state, followed by CPI(M)'s LDF. Election Commission data show LDF's Pinarayi Vijayan is leading in Dharmadam by 1090 votes against Congress' VP Abdul Rasheed.
Interestingly, the survey revealed a layered voter sentiment. While the alliance led by Pinarayi Vijayan was projected to lose, he remained the most preferred choice for chief minister among respondents.
At least 33 per cent wanted him to continue, highlighting a split between leadership preference and voting choice.
Kerala has a total of 140 seats, which means a party or alliance needs at least 71 seats to form the government. According to most exit polls, the UDF’s tally is expected to be in the range of 70–90 seats, while the LDF is projected to secure around 49–65 seats.