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Viksit Bharat@2047: Plan for $30tn economy goal in govt focus
The plan, work on which began in December, 2021, takes into account eight emerging key global challenges
The government is set to finalise a draft roadmap for India to become a $30-trillion developed economy in about two decades for a projected 1.65 billion population, a senior official said, sharing details of the “Viksit Bharat@2047” blueprint that, once finalised, is expected to be formally unveiled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi early next year.
The plan, work on which began in December, 2021, takes into account eight emerging key global challenges, including a “more affluent but polarised world”.
The roadmap is in its final stages and is expected to be completed by the end of this year after another round of stakeholders’ consultations, including with experts and industry leaders, NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam said on Sunday.
Such meetings are expected to take place next month in cities like New Delhi and Mumbai, he added.
The long-term roadmap will require structural and institutional reforms, a bridging of regional disparities, re-engineering of processes, developing excellence in certain specific areas, the recalibration of international engagements, the creation of human capital, and having a crop of global leaders, he added.
Progress on the work will be evaluated at multiple reference points – India’s position in 2030, 2040 and then 2047, the official said.
According to the initial plan (subject to some readjustments after stakeholders’ consultations due in November), the proposed measures should boost India’s gross domestic product (GDP) to $6.69 trillion in 2030, $16.13 trillion by 2040 and $29.02 trillion by 2047.
The projections for per capita GDP at current prices, based on the blueprint, is $4,418 by 2030, $10,021 by 2040, and $17,590 by 2047, and the exports targets are $1.58 trillion by value in 2030, $4.56 trillion by 2040, and $8.67 trillion by 2047.
Subrahmanyam said in order to have a comprehensive and cohesive plan, the cabinet secretary on December 17, 2021 formed 10 sectoral visioning teams of secretaries covering rural and agriculture; infrastructure; resources; social vision; welfare; finance and economy; commerce and industry; technology; governance; and security and foreign affairs.
Each Sectoral Group of Secretaries (SGoS) was tasked to prepare vision document for respective sectors after extensive stakeholders’ consultations with “whole of the government” and “whole of the country” approach, he added.
Subrahmanyam said the approach is aimed at bringing necessary changes in all types of institutions – public, private, academics, and scientific– to achieve the objective of a Viksit Bharat by 2047. SGoS’ conducted a systematic visioning exercise worked under a framework to have a uniform approach across the sectors.
For example, the finance ministry gave common economic parameters and projections to groups for convergence, he said. Accordingly, “eight megatrends” are expected to shape the world of 2050. The four “known factors” it takes into account are: India’s and Africa’s rise the centrestage amidst evolving demography (reflecting PM Modi’s focus on the Global South at G20); a more affluent but polarised world; an upsurge in climatic catastrophe; and fast-evolving geopolitical landscape (due to the Ukraine war and the Israeli retaliation against terror attack on October 7).
Four other factors, identified as “disruptive” are a ‘phygital’ future (impact of fast evolving digital technology on the physical world); pathbreaking innovations that change the way we live; a fight for global commons (such as space, ocean and data), and risks of unknown nature.
The vision document is to factor in these risks, Subrahmanyam said.
One of the purposes of this exercise is to avoid “the middle-income trap”, he added.
The middle-income trap denotes a situation where after rapid growth from a low-income to a middle-income economy, a country is unable to move up due to lack of competitiveness.
Government’s think tank Niti Aayog is the nodal body to compile sectoral roadmaps in lines with the ambition envisaged by the prime minister.
According to Subrahmanyam, the 10 sectoral groups have already done wide stakeholders’ consultations. “The one on trade and industry alone has consulted over 20,000 people,” he said with his first-hand experience as he was then the commerce secretary and the group was headed by him.
