With La Nina yet to take hold, experts predict milder winter
The NOAA indicates that if La Nina develops in coming months, it would be remarkably weak, suggesting India may experience milder winter temperatures than expected in La Nina.
Weather and climate experts are uncertain about this winter’s severity as they monitor the potential development of La Nina, a global weather phenomenon that influences winter temperatures and rainfall across India.
Earlier this year, several models projected La Nina to take hold by the second half of India’s monsoon soon, but these forecasts proved inaccurate. HT reported on October 2 that leading global forecasters miscalculated La Nina’s development this year, despite US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issuing a La Nina watch in May.
The NOAA indicates that if La Nina develops in coming months, it would be remarkably weak, suggesting India may experience milder winter temperatures than expected in La Nina.
Experts say most circulation patterns mirror La Nina conditions, characterised by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, contrasting with El Nino’s warmer temperatures. For La Nina to be officially declared, the Oceanic Nino Index must drop to at least -0.5°C or -0.3°C and maintain this level for several months.
“Due to climate change, normal temperatures are already elevated, and the La Nina anomaly isn’t sustaining itself,” said OP Sreejith, head of climate monitoring and prediction at the India Meteorological Department (IMD). “Traditional indices struggle to measure this anomaly because temperatures are already quite high.”
M Rajeevan, former secretary of the Union ministry of earth sciences, added: “Latest forecasts suggest La Nina will be weak and brief. Since models failed to predict it accurately this year, we may not experience corresponding colder weather in India. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast suggests above-normal winter temperatures across north India with reduced precipitation.”
Private forecaster Skymet Weather reported on Saturday that borderline La Nina conditions are expected during November-January and December-February 2025, with ENSO-neutral conditions likely resuming in the second quarter of 2025.
NOAA’s blog has called this delay in La Nina onset “spooky weather”. The tropical Pacific Ocean reflected neutral conditions — neither El Nino nor La Nina — in September and NOAA currently estimates a 60% chance of La Nina developing between September and November, though this probability has decreased from previous forecasts.
Meanwhile, northern India continues to experience above-normal minimum temperatures. On Sunday, Delhi recorded 20.1°C, 3 degrees above normal, whilst Lucknow registered 22.3°C, 5.1 degrees above normal. Similar patterns were observed in Sirsa (20.8°C), Rohtak (19°C), Chandigarh (18.9°C), and Amritsar (17.4°C), all significantly above normal ranges.
Recommended Topics