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Lok Sabha Elections 2019: With Pune’s revised voter turnout at 49.84 %, does BJP have an upper hand?
BJP’s internal assessment indicates a win for its nominee, while Congress says reduced turnout as compared to 2014 has made it a tough fight
The Election Commission on Wednesday, revised its figures for Pune and Baramati, the two constituencies which went to polls on April 23, with the former reporting 49.84 per cent voter turnout while the latter saw 61.54 per cent voting.
For Pune, there were 31 candidates in the fray, although the main fight was between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) nominee Girish Bapat and Mohan Joshi of the Congress. The contest in Pune will be a close fight now as the voting percentage did not hit the half way mark. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Pune witnessed 54.11% polling, the outcome of which was in BJP candidate Anil Shirole’s favour. He won the polls with a margin of 3.15 lakh votes, taking lead in all the six assembly segments. A dip of over four per cent polling will reduce the margin of whoever win the polls, feel political observers.
While the internal assessment of the BJP indicates a win for its nominee with a narrow margin, Congress leaders say that the reduced voter turnout has made the contest too close too call.
Under the Pune Lok Sabha seat, the three assembly segments that witnessed more than 50% polling are Kothrud (50.26%), Parvati (52.07%) and Kasba peth (55.88%) The largest segment, Wadgaon Sheri with a voter population of 4.44 lakh witnessed 46.41%. The two other segments, Shivajinagar and Pune Cantonment saw 46.94% and 48.79% voter turnout respectively.
A closer look at the assembly segment-wise voting percentage indicates that the Bharatiya Janata Party( BJP) may have an upper hand, as areas favourable to the party saw higher voting percentage.
During the 2014 assembly polls followed by the municipal corporation elections in 2017, the BJP received strong backing from Kothrud and Parvati. While all six assembly segments which are part of the Pune Lok Sabha constituency are currently being represented by the BJP, Kothrud and Parvati elected 16 and 15 corporators of the BJP from the 20 and 19 wards respectively.
On the other hand, the BJP has only 13 out of 24 corporators in Wadgaon Sheri, which strongly backed the BJP member of Parliament (MP) Shirole in 2014.
“We have conducted an analysis of the booth-wise figures and are confident of a win. The areas, which we had focused on for maximum voting, show better turnout even though the overall voting percentage is less than in 2014,” said Yogesh Gogawale, city BJP chief.
Given that the Congress had relatively lower chances of winning in Kothrud and Parvati, Joshi’s campaign too was focused on other four segments. Arithmetic shows that consolidated votes for the BJP and the Shiv Sena during the 2014 assembly polls in Shivajinagar were just 2,272 more than the total votes garnered by the Congress, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), which did not fight the Lok Sabha polls this time.
“The polling is over and I can say with confidence that people have voted for the Congress,” said Joshi.
In Kasba peth and Cantonment, the BJP and Shiv Sena lead with around 10,410 and 11,526 votes respectively over consolidated votes received by the Congress, the NCP and MNS during the 2014 assembly polls. In case of Kasba peth, the Congress has made inroads in the area over the past few years even though BJP’s Bapat has represented this segment for five terms.
