The Harmanpreet Singh-led India seemed all but out of the semi-finals race of the Men's Hockey World Cup after suffering a 1-3 defeat, but Argentina threw a major lifeline. India remain in contention for a last-four spot after Argentina registered a 3-1 victory over England, and hence the race has finally come down to the final day of the Group E matches. With England remaining on three points for now, India have a mathematical route into the last four, although it involves a strong win and another favourable result.
The Netherlands have already secured their semi-final place after taking their tally to six points. The battle for the second spot is now between England, Argentina and India, with the final round of Pool E matches scheduled for August 24.
What must India do?
For starters, India cannot afford anything other than a win against Argentina. A draw or defeat would eliminate India from the semi-final race. A victory would take India to three points, level with Argentina and England. However, given the current goal difference, a narrow victory would not necessarily be enough to send India through.
India, therefore, need to win by at least two goals to give itself a realistic chance of finishing above Argentina and England on the relevant tie-breakers. That is a daunting challenge considering Argentina's quality. The two teams have already met twice in the FIH Pro League this year, with Argentina winning both encounters (8-0 and 4-2).
{{/usCountry}}India, therefore, need to win by at least two goals to give itself a realistic chance of finishing above Argentina and England on the relevant tie-breakers. That is a daunting challenge considering Argentina's quality. The two teams have already met twice in the FIH Pro League this year, with Argentina winning both encounters (8-0 and 4-2).
{{/usCountry}}India will therefore have to produce a vastly improved performance against a side that has already demonstrated its ability to punish defensive mistakes.
A win just not enough
India's other requirement is for the already-qualified Netherlands to defeat England in the final Pool E match. The Netherlands and England will meet on August 24 at the Wagener Hockey Stadium in Amstelveen. The match will take place after the fixture between India and Argentina.
If England win or draw, they will finish on at least four points and India cannot catch them. A Netherlands victory would leave England on three points and potentially bring all three of India, England and Argentina level on three points, provided India defeat Argentina. That is where the goal calculations become crucial.
What happens if both matches are won by a two-goal margin?
This is where the equation becomes considerably more complicated. For example, if India defeat Argentina 3-1 and England subsequently lose 2-0 to the Netherlands, the teams' goal-scoring figures could leave India ahead on the relevant tie-breaker. But if India win 3-1 and England lose 1-3, the numbers can become much tighter.
In such a scenario, the teams could remain level on the earlier criteria, meaning the next tie-breaker, including field goals could come into play. India therefore have every reason to chase goals against Argentina rather than settle for the minimum required victory.