Over a month back, neither of the US Open men's singles finalists was anywhere in the reckoning. The conversation swung between whether Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner would even be fit to play, and Novak Djokovic's chances, in the twilight of his career, of a 25th major. By the end of the fortnight in New York, none of those three are around. An injured Sinner never played. Djokovic was out in the first round. Alcaraz, testing the waters after injury, made it as far as the quarterfinals.
The two men left standing came out of nowhere by comparison. Alexander Zverev had been an afterthought all summer, despite winning the French Open and reaching the Wimbledon final. The bigger surprise is Ben Shelton, now one win from becoming the first American man to win a major since Andy Roddick in 2003.
There's plenty at stake for both. Zverev, now the ninth man to reach at least the semifinals of all four majors in a calendar year, is chasing a second Grand Slam title and a chance to become the first German man to win in New York since Boris Becker in 1989. Shelton, beyond ending the USA's long wait for a Slam champion, is aiming to become the first Black American winner at the US Open since Arthur Ashe lifted the title here in 1968.
Deep Dive
How did Ben Shelton reach the US Open final against Alexander Zverev?
What challenges is Alexander Zverev facing in the US Open final?
What historical significance does the US Open final hold for Ben Shelton?
Here's the case for both, and a call on who walks away with it.
Why Ben Shelton will win
{{/usCountry}}Here's the case for both, and a call on who walks away with it.
Why Ben Shelton will win
{{/usCountry}}Playing the best tennis of his career, Shelton turned heads by stunning defending champion Alcaraz in the quarterfinals in an epic that finished at 3:33 a.m., then rallied from a set down to beat compatriot Frances Tiafoe in the semifinal, closing that match with 47 winners to Tiafoe's 27 to reach his first Grand Slam final.
His biggest weapon all fortnight has been his serve, on full display against Tiafoe on Friday — 20 aces, 75% of first serves landing, and a second-serve win rate of 54% that kept him out of trouble even when his first delivery wasn't working.
What stood out more, though, was his return game and defensive play against both Alcaraz and Tiafoe. If he can bring that into this final against the big-serving German, and hold onto the mental fortitude he showed in the decisive final set and the extended tiebreak against Alcaraz, there's a real path forward for him.
Shelton will also need his athleticism up at the net when Zverev — who hasn't yet shown the level of tennis that carried him through the summer — sits deep to return. But most of all, he'll need to keep the New York crowd roaring behind him all evening.
Even stepping into uncharted territory — his best previous Slam result being a semifinal run at the 2023 US Open — Shelton sounds convinced he'll find a way through Zverev, who has beaten him five times before, the same way he found a way past an Alcaraz who'd beaten him three straight times before Tuesday.
"The key here has been figuring out how to solve problems. I was 0-1 against Tsitsipas and 0-3 against Carlos. Foe (Tiafoe) had beaten me in our last match on this court. It was a tough battle, so I think I'm now fully capable of rising to the challenge and finding solutions. I feel like a different player. I feel like I have so many more tools. I know my identity better, I'm comfortable with myself and I know what I need to play at the highest level," he said.
Why Zverev will win
The Roland Garros champion hasn't exactly been part of the conversation either, coming off a poor run in the tune-up events before needing five sets in each of his first two rounds in New York. There's also an argument he hasn't faced a top-20 opponent all fortnight — but the same was true in Paris, where he still had to get past an unfancied Flavio Cobolli, the No. 10 seed, in five sets.
Zverev, the top seed, will lean on his serve and his experience in the final. He's been here before, having led two sets to love and served for a 5-3 lead in the 2020 final before losing to Dominic Thiem. He also lost two other major finals — the 2024 French Open and the 2025 Australian Open — before finally winning his maiden Slam this June.
He'll also take real confidence from his history against Shelton. Across their five previous meetings, Zverev has faced just five break points total — only one of them in their last four matches — while creating 34 break points himself and converting 10. Their most recent clash, at last year's ATP Finals, wasn't close statistically either: Shelton won just 10 of 54 return points, while Zverev claimed 16 of 21 points off Shelton's second serve. Zverev's backhand, one of the best in the sport, is built precisely to absorb and redirect the kind of heavy forehand Shelton likes to lean on.
His job, essentially, is to repeat what's already worked and close it out.
Verdict
There's no reason New York, or Shelton himself, shouldn't believe this is the moment to end America's long wait. He's playing the best tennis of his career and knows the time is now. But Zverev loves this matchup — he's dismantled it every time it's come up.
Expect Shelton to make it competitive, perhaps even take a set behind his serve. But Zverev's season has been building toward exactly this moment, and the history between these two suggests he knows how to close it out. Zverev in four sets.