US Open 2022 Final, Iga Swiatek vs Ons Jabeur: Where the battle can be won

Ahead of the blockbuster US Open final at the Flushing Meadows, we take a look at key factors which will decide the battle between Swiatek and Jabeur...

When the US Open had begun a fortnight back in New York, predicting two finalists, let alone an overwhelming or outright favourite for the final Slam of the year, was the toughest task. None of the top-ranked players, including world no.1 Iga Swiatek, who dominated the first half of the season with record 37 straight wins and a second career major at Roland Garros, were at the best of their form in the build-up to the tournament leaving the draw of 128 players throwing as many as eight to 10 players who had the possibility of surviving through their next six matches to make the summit clash in US Open.

Iga Swiatek vs Ons Jabeur

Yet two weeks hence, nothing looks more perfect or fitting than Swiatek and No. 5 Ons Jabeur, the two who have both been the best on tour in 2022 and have reached a Slam final each earlier this year, to fight for the final major of the calendar year.

Jabeur, who has now made back-to-back major finals having earlier reached the summit clash in Wimbledon, has previously faced two-time Slam winner Swiatek four times on the tour with each winning two matches each. They remain tied on hard-court meetings as well, although the Tunisian won their only encounter at a major, at 2021 Wimbledon.

Swiatek's struggle with serve

Swiatek could have had a bakery shop of her own to the number bagels and breadsticks she registered through her dominant run of 37 straight wins in the first half the season. Seldom did a match go to a deciding set, such was her prowess. But in New York, Swiatek, despite a rather impressive run, hasn't regained that rhythm, largely outlined by her inability to hold serve. She has managed to hold just 68 per cent of her service games and was broken as many as 16 times in her last three matches. Jabeur, on the other hand, has a dominating 73 per cent win on service game where her key has on first serves where she extracted 73 per cent win. The Tunisia has also offered 11 fewer break point opportunities (40-29) to her opponents and practically none to Caroline Garcia in her semi-final meeting.

Iga Swiatek of Poland serves against Aryna Sabalenka during their Women's Singles Semifinal match on Day Eleven of the 2022 US Open

The Return Game

The key reason behind Swiatek surviving the topsy-turvy second week in New York is because of her top-notch return game. Heading into US Open, she had won 52.7 per cent of her return games. She took the number up to 58 at the Flushing Meadows. Jabeur too increased her number from 40 per cent before US Open to 48 per cent in New York. In terms of points won on return, the two have been almost inseparable with the Pole have a slight advantage.

	Iga Swiatek	Ons Jabeur
Receiving points win %	53.5 (236/441)	50.3 (206/409)
on 1st serve win %	45 (110/244)	61.2 (95/155)
on 2nd serve win %	63 (124/197)	73.4 (69/94)

Jabeur's backhand slice, Swiatek's defense

Garcia had a flawless game from the baseline in her run to the US Open semis, but Jabeur unsettled the Frenchwoman with her low backhand slice, a weapon she used on 48 per cent of her backhands which drastically affected Garcia's ability to attack. Swiatek may not have been as attacking a player as Garcia, but Swiatek would want to evade or find an antidote for this slice shot of Jabeur.

Ons Jabeur of Tunisia returns a shot against Caroline Garcia of France during their Women's Singles Semifinal match on Day Eleven of the 2022 US Open

What the Tunisian would want to be wary of is Swiatek's stronghold in defense, having won 40 per cent of the points when in defence, the number being significantly more than the tournament average (33) and Jabeur (35).